IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/une/wpaper/24.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Dual Divergence: Growth Successes and Collapses in the Developing World since 1980

Author

Listed:
  • José Antonio Ocampo
  • María Angela Parra

Abstract

This paper argues that developing countries’ growth successes and collapses tend to cluster in specific time periods—and that only the existence of a global development cycle can explain this. The cycle reflects the external factors that affect all, or large clusters of developing countries, and thus constrain their growth possibilities. Nonetheless, country-specific factors—particularly patterns of specialization—play a significant role in determining growth dynamics. From this perspective, the paper shows a very large difference between the economic growth of developing countries diversifying into higher technology manufacturing exports and those experiencing success in natural resource intensive sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • José Antonio Ocampo & María Angela Parra, 2006. "The Dual Divergence: Growth Successes and Collapses in the Developing World since 1980," Working Papers 24, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
  • Handle: RePEc:une:wpaper:24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2006/wp24_2006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 582-587, August.
    3. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
    4. Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "Growth Accelerations," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 303-329, December.
    5. Codrina Rada & Lance Taylor, 2004. "Empty Sources of Growth Accounting, and Empirical Replacements à la Kaldor with Some Beef," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 5(3), pages 45-74.
    6. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Albert Berry & John Serieux, 2004. "All About the Giants: Probing the Influences on World Growth and Income Inequality at the End of the 20th Century," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 50(1), pages 133-170.
    8. Ocampo, José Antonio & Parra, María Angela, 2003. "The terms of trade for commodities in the twentieth century," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    9. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    10. Codrina Rada, 2007. "A growth model for a two-sector economy with endogenous productivity," Working Papers 44, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    11. Sanjaya Lall, 2001. "Competitiveness, Technology and Skills," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2298.
    12. Ranis, Gustav & Stewart, Frances & Ramirez, Alejandro, 2000. "Economic Growth and Human Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 197-219, February.
    13. Mortimore, Michael & Peres Núñez, Wilson, 2001. "Corporate competitiveness in Latin America and the Caribbean," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    14. François Bourguignon & Christian Morrisson, 2002. "Inequality Among World Citizens: 1820-1992," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 727-744, September.
    15. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth: Searching for Hills among Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 221-250, May.
    16. Lant Pritchett, 1997. "Divergence, Big Time," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 3-17, Summer.
    17. van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
    18. Merlinda D. Ingco & John D. Nash, 2004. "Agriculture and the WTO : Creating a Trading System for Development," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14930.
    19. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    20. Michael A. Clemens & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "A Tariff-Growth Paradox? Protection's Impact the World Around 1875-1997," NBER Working Papers 8459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2004. "Testing Export-Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Using a Multivariate Framework," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(4), pages 483-496, July.
    22. Costas Azariadis & Allan Drazen, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-526.
    23. Douglas A. Irwin, 2002. "Interpreting the Tariff-Growth Correlation of the Late Nineteenth Century," NBER Working Papers 8739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Douglas A. Irwin, 2002. "Interpreting the Tariff–Growth Correlation of the Late 19th Century," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 165-169, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vera, Cecilia & Machinea, José Luis, 2006. "Trade, direct investment and production policies," Series Históricas 16, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; divergence; external factors; global development cycle; patterns of specialization; technological intensity of exports;

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:une:wpaper:24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Aimee Gao). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/desunus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.