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Auswirkungen der Flüchtlingsmigration auf die langfristige Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen

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  • Aretz, Bodo
  • Christofzik, Désirée I.
  • Scheuering, Uwe
  • Werding, Martin

Abstract

Die bestehenden Tragfähigkeitsrisiken in Deutschland resultieren aus der demografischen Alterung und sind weiterhin erheblich. Dieser Beitrag analysiert die langfristigen Auswirkungen der erhöhten asylbedingten Zuwanderung auf die öffentlichen Finanzen. Dabei wird erstmals ein erweiterter Projektionszeitraum bis 2080 verwendet. Insgesamt zeigt sich, dass die erhöhte Flüchtlingsmigration keine nennenswerten, ungünstigen Effekte auf die langfristige Tragfähigkeit hat. Allerdings trägt sie auch nicht dazu bei, die bestehenden Tragfähigkeitsrisiken zu vermindern. Variierende Annahmen zur Integration der anerkannten Asylbewerber in den Arbeitsmarkt haben bei den betrachteten Szenarien noch die größten Effekte.

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  • Aretz, Bodo & Christofzik, Désirée I. & Scheuering, Uwe & Werding, Martin, 2016. "Auswirkungen der Flüchtlingsmigration auf die langfristige Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen," Working Papers 06/2016, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:062016
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    1. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819.
    2. Werding, Martin, 2016. "Rentenfinanzierung im demographischen Wandel: Tragfähigkeitsprobleme und Handlungsoptionen," Working Papers 05/2016, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    3. Werding, Martin & Runschke, Benedikt & Schwarz, Milena, 2024. "Alterungsschub und Rentenreform: Simulationen für GRV und Beamtenversorgung," Working Papers 01/2024, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    4. Andritzky, Jochen & Aretz, Bodo & Christofzik, Désirée I. & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2016. "Influx of refugees: Integration as a key challenge," Working Papers 09/2016, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.

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