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A small stochastic model of a pension fund with endogenous saving

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  • Jan Bonenkamp
  • Martijn van de Ven

Abstract

We live in an uncertain world, yet a lot of research into the sustainability of welfare states is done in the context of certainty. There are good reasons why the analysis is mostly confined to a model of a certain world. A full analysis of the sustainability of welfare states which includes all relevant economic interactions is already intricate in a certain world because it requires the use of complex dynamic general equilibrium models. Even without stochastics, understanding all the mechanisms and its results is sometimes difficult. In addition, when building stochastics into these type of models one may run into the limitations of computer capacity.In this paper we investigate whether uncertainty on the real rate of return on capital and productivity growth (labelled as economic uncertainty) is more or less important than mortality and fertility uncertainty (labelled as demographic uncertainty) for a consumer facing a decision how much to save. Furthermore we look at the errors that are made when uncertainty is neglected in consumer behaviour. The results indicate that economic uncertainty is far more important than demographic uncertainty. The welfare costs of neglecting uncertainty in consumer behaviour seem to be small.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Bonenkamp & Martijn van de Ven, 2006. "A small stochastic model of a pension fund with endogenous saving," CPB Memorandum 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpb:memodm:168
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    Cited by:

    1. Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & Ed Westerhout, 2008. "The impact of demographic uncertainty on public finances in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 104, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Alessandro Bucciol & Roel M.W.J. Beetsma, 2010. "Inter- and Intra-generational Consequences of Pension Buffer Policy under Demographic, Financial, and Economic Shocks," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(3), pages 366-403, September.
    3. Du, C. & Muysken, J. & Sleijpen, O.C.H.M., 2010. "Economy wide risk diversification in a three-pillar pension system," Research Memorandum 055, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    4. Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & Ed Westerhout, 2008. "The impact of demographic uncertainty on public finances in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 104.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Du, C. & Muysken, J. & Sleijpen, O.C.H.M., 2010. "Economy wide risk diversification in a three-pillar pension system," Research Memorandum 055, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    6. Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & André Nibbelink & Ed Westerhout, 2007. "Fiscal prefunding in response to demographic uncertainty," CPB Discussion Paper 85.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & André Nibbelink & Ed Westerhout, 2007. "Fiscal prefunding in response to demographic uncertainty," CPB Discussion Paper 85, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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