The impact of demographic uncertainty on public finances in the Netherlands
This paper presents stochastic simulations, i.e. simulations that combine the CGE model of the Dutch economy GAMMA with stochastic population projections, to quantify uncertainties surrounding the consequences of population ageing for Dutch public finances. The expected increase in the ratio of retirees to workers that is due to population ageing is sure to increase pressure on public finances and the Dutch economy in the coming decades. However, because of the uncertainty regarding future demographic developments, the exact extent of the problem is unknown. This paper quantifies the�uncertainties by stochastic simulation.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (070) 338 33 80
Fax: (070) 338 33 50
Web page: http://www.cpb.nl/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Stochastic demographic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 315-327, November.
- Jan Bonenkamp & Martijn van de Ven, 2006. "A small stochastic model of a pension fund with endogenous saving," CPB Memorandum 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Casper van Ewijk & Nick Draper & Harry ter Rele & Ed Westerhout, 2006. "Ageing and the sustainability of Dutch public finances," CPB Special Publication 61, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006.
"Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach,"
IMF Working Papers
06/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 3.
- Nick Draper & Alex Armstrong, 2007. "GAMMA; a simulation model for ageing, pensions and public finances," CPB Document 147, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Ronald Lee & Michael Anderson, 2005. "Stochastic Infinite Horizon Forecasts for US Social Security Finances," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 194(1), pages 82-93, October.
- Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Mitchell, Olivia S., 1999.
"New developments in the economic analysis of retirement,"
Handbook of Labor Economics,
in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 49, pages 3261-3307
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & Olivia S. Mitchell, . "New Developments in the Economic Analysis of Retirement," Pension Research Council Working Papers 98-8, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
- repec:nsr:niesrd:279 is not listed on IDEAS
- Andrew Abel & Gregory N. Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard Zeckhauser, .
"Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
14-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Alho, Juha M., 1990. "Stochastic methods in population forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 521-530, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.