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Economy wide risk diversification in a three-pillar pension system

  • Du Cai Cai
  • Muysken Joan
  • Sleijpen Olaf

    (METEOR)

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    We model a three-pillar pension system and analyse the impact of exogenous shocks on an open economy, using an overlapping generation model where individuals live for two periods. The three-pillar pension system consists of (1) a PAYG pension system, (2) a defined benefits pension fund, and (3) private savings. The economy is exposed to an ageing trend, inflation and a stock market crash. We show that in the three-pillar pension system the impact of these shocks on the economy is mitigated when compared to a two- pillar system, since each shock has a different impact on the three pillars. In order to illustrate the working of the model with respect to the impact of shocks, both in magnitude and the development over time, we provide simulation results for the Netherlands.

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    File URL: http://digitalarchive.maastrichtuniversity.nl/fedora/objects/guid:388411b1-b158-426c-948a-275f856ccb38/datastreams/ASSET1/content
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    Paper provided by Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR) in its series Research Memorandum with number 055.

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    Date of creation: 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:unm:umamet:2010055
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    1. Thomas WEITZENBLUM & Pierre-Yves HENIN, 2003. "Welfare effects of alternative pension reforms : Assessing the transition costs for French socio-occupational groups," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 144, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Lans Bovenberg & Harald Uhlig, 2006. "Pension Sytems and the Allocation of Macroeconomic Risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-066, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    3. Nick Draper & Alex Armstrong, 2007. "GAMMA; a simulation model for ageing, pensions and public finances," CPB Document 147, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects of Prelected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 90/5, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2009. "Longevity, fertility and PAYG pension systems sustainability," Discussion Papers 2009/77, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Burkhard Heer & Andreas Irmen, 2013. "Population, Pensions, And Endogenous Economic Growth," CREA Discussion Paper Series 13-17, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
    7. Verbic, Miroslav, 2007. "Modelling the pension system in an overlapping-generations general equilibrium modelling framework," MPRA Paper 10350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Çagaçan Deger, 2008. "Pension Reform in an OLG Model with Multiple Social Security Systems," ERC Working Papers 0805, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Oct 2008.
    9. Bas van Groezen & Lex Meijdam & Harrie A. A. Verbon, 2007. "The Case For Pay-As-You-Go Pensions In A Service Economy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(2), pages 151-165, 05.
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    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:10:y:2008:i:2:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jan Bonenkamp & Martijn van de Ven, 2006. "A small stochastic model of a pension fund with endogenous saving," CPB Memorandum 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    13. Luca Gori & Luciano Fanti, 2008. "Longevity and PAYG pension systems sustainability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 10(2), pages 1-8.
    14. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2006. "The Effect of Latvian Pension Reform on Savings and Government Budget," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 3-21, July.
    15. Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & André Nibbelink & Ed Westerhout, 2007. "Fiscal prefunding in response to demographic uncertainty," CPB Discussion Paper 85, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Kemmerling, Achim & Neugart, Michael, 2009. "Financial market lobbies and pension reform," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 163-173, June.
    17. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
    18. Jan Bonenkamp & Ed Westerhout, 2010. "Intergenerational risk sharing and labour supply in collective funded pension schemes with defined benefits," CPB Discussion Paper 151, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    19. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
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