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Economy wide risk diversification in a three-pillar pension system

  • Du Cai Cai
  • Muysken Joan
  • Sleijpen Olaf


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    We model a three-pillar pension system and analyse the impact of exogenous shocks on an open economy, using an overlapping generation model where individuals live for two periods. The three-pillar pension system consists of (1) a PAYG pension system, (2) a defined benefits pension fund, and (3) private savings. The economy is exposed to an ageing trend, inflation and a stock market crash. We show that in the three-pillar pension system the impact of these shocks on the economy is mitigated when compared to a two- pillar system, since each shock has a different impact on the three pillars. In order to illustrate the working of the model with respect to the impact of shocks, both in magnitude and the development over time, we provide simulation results for the Netherlands.

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    Paper provided by Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR) in its series Research Memorandum with number 055.

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    Date of creation: 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:unm:umamet:2010055
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    1. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 453-485, September.
    2. Heer, Burkhard & Irmen, Andreas, 2014. "Population, pensions, and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 50-72.
    3. Jan Bonenkamp & Ed Westerhout, 2010. "Intergenerational risk sharing and labour supply in collective funded pension schemes with defined benefits," CPB Discussion Paper 151, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. HENIN, P. Y. & WEITZENBLUM, Th., 2005. "Welfare effects of alternative pension reforms: Assessing the transition costs for French socio-occupational groups," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 249-271, November.
    5. Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & André Nibbelink & Ed Westerhout, 2007. "Fiscal prefunding in response to demographic uncertainty," CPB Discussion Paper 85, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
    7. Lans Bovenberg & Harald Uhlig, 2008. "Pension Systems and the Allocation of Macroeconomic Risk," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 241-344 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Luca Gori & Luciano Fanti, 2008. "Longevity and PAYG pension systems sustainability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 10(2), pages 1-8.
    9. Bas van Groezen & Lex Meijdam & Harrie A. A. Verbon, 2007. "The Case For Pay-As-You-Go Pensions In A Service Economy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(2), pages 151-165, 05.
    10. Jan Bonenkamp & Martijn van de Ven, 2006. "A small stochastic model of a pension fund with endogenous saving," CPB Memorandum 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2009. "Longevity, fertility and PAYG pension systems sustainability," Discussion Papers 2009/77, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    12. Çagaçan Deger, 2008. "Pension Reform in an OLG Model with Multiple Social Security Systems," ERC Working Papers 0805, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Oct 2008.
    13. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
    14. Nick Draper & Alex Armstrong, 2007. "GAMMA; a simulation model for ageing, pensions and public finances," CPB Document 147, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    15. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2006. "The Effect of Latvian Pension Reform on Savings and Government Budget," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 3-21, July.
    16. Verbic, Miroslav, 2007. "Modelling the pension system in an overlapping-generations general equilibrium modelling framework," MPRA Paper 10350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:10:y:2008:i:2:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Kemmerling, Achim & Neugart, Michael, 2009. "Financial market lobbies and pension reform," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 163-173, June.
    19. Cagacan DEGER, 2011. "Pension Reform in an Overlapping Model with Multiple Social Security Systems," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 11(4), pages 563-572.
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