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Long-run Fiscal Projections under Uncertainty: The Case of New Zealand

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  • Ball, Christopher
  • Creedy, John
  • Scobie, Grant

Abstract

This paper introduces uncertainty into a fiscal projection model which incorporates population ageing along with a number of feedback effects. When fiscal policy responds in order to achieve a target debt ratio, feedback effects modify the intended outcomes. The feedbacks include the effect on labour supply in response to changes in tax rates, changes in the country risk premium in response to higher public debt ratios, endogenous changes in the rate of productivity growth and savings. Stochastic projections of a range of policy responses are produced, allowing for uncertainty regarding the world interest rate, productivity growth and the growth rates of two components of per capita government expenditure. The probability of exceeding a given debt ratio in each projection year, using a particular tax or expenditure policy,can then be evaluated. Policy implications are briefly discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ball, Christopher & Creedy, John & Scobie, Grant, 2015. "Long-run Fiscal Projections under Uncertainty: The Case of New Zealand," Working Paper Series 4756, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwcpf:4756
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    File URL: http://researcharchive.vuw.ac.nz/handle/10063/4756
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2004. "Pre-funding Expenditure on Health and Long-term Care under Demographic Uncertainty," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, vol. 29(4), pages 620-639, October.
    2. David Bloom & David Canning, 2003. "Health as Human Capital and its Impact on Economic Performance," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, vol. 28, pages 304-315, April.
    3. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, 2014. "Tax policy with uncertain future costs: Some simple models," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 240-253, August.
    4. John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2014. "Social expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 196-208, August.
    5. Felicity C Barker & Robert A Buckle & Robert W St Clair, 2008. "Roles of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 08/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    6. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    7. John Creedy & Grant M. Scobie, 2005. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 38(1), pages 19-39, March.
    8. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Robert A. Buckle & Amy A. Cruickshank, 2014. "The requirements for fiscal sustainability in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 111-128, August.
    10. John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2017. "Debt projections and fiscal sustainability with feedback effects," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 237-261, September.
    11. W. A. Razzak & J. Timmins, 2010. "Education and labour productivity in New Zealand," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 169-173, January.
    12. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474, March.
    13. Craig Fookes, 2011. "Modelling Shocks to New Zealand's Fiscal Position," Treasury Working Paper Series 11/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    14. Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & André Nibbelink & Ed Westerhout, 2007. "Fiscal prefunding in response to demographic uncertainty," CPB Discussion Paper 85, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    15. Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/11, New Zealand Treasury.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Fiscal policy - New Zealand; Fiscal projections; Long-term projections; Economics models and forecasting;

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