IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/vuw/vuwcpf/19356.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long-run Fiscal Projections under Uncertainty: The Case of New Zealand

Author

Listed:
  • Ball, Christopher
  • Creedy, John
  • Scobie, Grant

Abstract

This paper introduces uncertainty into a fiscal projection model which incorporates population ageing along with a number of feedback effects. When fiscal policy responds in order to achieve a target debt ratio, feedback effects modify the intended outcomes. The feedbacks include the effect on labour supply in response to changes in tax rates, changes in the country risk premium in response to higher public debt ratios, endogenous changes in the rate of productivity growth and savings. Stochastic projections of a range of policy responses are produced, allowing for uncertainty regarding the world interest rate, productivity growth and the growth rates of two components of per capita government expenditure. The probability of exceeding a given debt ratio in each projection year, using a particular tax or expenditure policy,can then be evaluated. Policy implications are briefly discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ball, Christopher & Creedy, John & Scobie, Grant, 2015. "Long-run Fiscal Projections under Uncertainty: The Case of New Zealand," Working Paper Series 19356, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwcpf:19356
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ir.wgtn.ac.nz/handle/123456789/19356
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2014. "Social expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 196-208, August.
    2. John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2017. "Debt projections and fiscal sustainability with feedback effects," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 237-261, September.
    3. Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2004. "Pre-funding Expenditure on Health and Long-term Care under Demographic Uncertainty," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 29(4), pages 620-639, October.
    4. David Bloom & David Canning, 2003. "Health as Human Capital and its Impact on Economic Performance," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 28(2), pages 304-315, April.
    5. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, 2014. "Tax policy with uncertain future costs: Some simple models," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 240-253, August.
    6. repec:bla:ausecr:v:38:y:2005:i:1:p:19-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Robert A. Buckle & Amy A. Cruickshank, 2014. "The requirements for fiscal sustainability in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 111-128, August.
    9. W. A. Razzak & J. Timmins, 2010. "Education and labour productivity in New Zealand," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 169-173, January.
    10. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    11. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    12. Craig Fookes, 2011. "Modelling Shocks to New Zealand's Fiscal Position," Treasury Working Paper Series 11/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    13. Alan J. Auerbach & Kevin A. Hassett, 2002. "Fiscal Policy and Uncertainty," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 229-249.
    14. Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/11, New Zealand Treasury.
    15. Felicity C Barker & Robert A Buckle & Robert W St Clair, 2008. "Roles of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 08/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    16. Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & André Nibbelink & Ed Westerhout, 2007. "Fiscal prefunding in response to demographic uncertainty," CPB Discussion Paper 85.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    17. Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & André Nibbelink & Ed Westerhout, 2007. "Fiscal prefunding in response to demographic uncertainty," CPB Discussion Paper 85, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2017. "Debt projections and fiscal sustainability with feedback effects," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 237-261, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dunstan Kim & Ball Christopher, 2016. "Demographic Projections: User and Producer Experiences of Adopting a Stochastic Approach," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 32(4), pages 947-962, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher Ball & John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2015. "Long-run Fiscal Projections under Uncertainty: The Case of New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 15/10, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, 2014. "Tax policy with uncertain future costs: Some simple models," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 240-253, August.
    3. John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2017. "Debt projections and fiscal sustainability with feedback effects," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 237-261, September.
    4. John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2017. "Debt projections and fiscal sustainability with feedback effects," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 237-261, September.
    5. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, 2014. "Tax policy with uncertain future costs: Some simple models," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 240-253, August.
    6. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "A quarter of a century of fiscal responsibility: The origins and evolution of fiscal policy governance and institutional arrangements in New Zealand, 1994 to 2018," Working Paper Series 7693, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    7. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "A quarter of a century of fiscal responsibility: The origins and evolution of fiscal policy governance and institutional arrangements in New Zealand, 1994 to 2018," Working Paper Series 20848, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    8. Christopher Ball & John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2018. "The Timing of Income Tax Changes in the Face of Projected Debt Increases," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(2), pages 191-210, June.
    9. John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2014. "Social expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 196-208, August.
    10. Matthew Bell & Paul Rodway, 2014. "Treasury's 2013 long-term fiscal statement: Assumptions and projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 139-152, August.
    11. Robert A Buckle & Amy A Cruickshank, 2013. "The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/20, New Zealand Treasury.
    12. Razzak, Weshah, 2020. "Future Fiscal Adjustments and Debt Sustainability," MPRA Paper 103380, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Du, C. & Muysken, J. & Sleijpen, O.C.H.M., 2010. "Economy wide risk diversification in a three-pillar pension system," Research Memorandum 055, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    14. Carine Bouthevillain & John Caruana & Cristina Checherita & Jorge Cunha & Esther Gordo & Stephan Haroutunian & Geert Langenus & Amela Hubic & Bernhard Manzke & Javier J. Pérez & Pietro Tommasino, 2009. "Pros and cons of various fiscal measures to stimulate the economy," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue JUL, pages 123-144, July.
    15. João T. Jalles, 2020. "Explaining Africa's public consumption procyclicality: Revisiting old evidence," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 297-323, August.
    16. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2003. "Political Instability, Uncertainty and Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-54, February.
    17. Nick Davis, 2001. "Does Crown Financial Portfolio Composition Matter?," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/34, New Zealand Treasury.
    18. Simon Bradbury & Jim Brumby & David Skilling, 1999. "Sovereign Net Worth: An Analytical Framework," Treasury Working Paper Series 99/03, New Zealand Treasury.
    19. Torben Andersen, 2014. "Intergenerational redistribution and risk sharing with changing longevity," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 111(1), pages 1-27, February.
    20. Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2013. "The experience of some OECD economies on tax smoothing," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2305-2313, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwcpf:19356. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Library Technology Services (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fcvuwnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.