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Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections

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Abstract

This paper presents stochastic projections for 13 categories of social spending in New Zealand over the period 2011-2061. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation methods, following Creedy and Scobie (2005). Emphasis is placed on the considerable uncertainty involved in projecting future expenditure levels.

Suggested Citation

  • John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2013. "Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/06, New Zealand Treasury.
  • Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:13/06
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    File URL: https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2013-03/twp13-06.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. José Alvardo & John Creedy, 998. "Population Ageing, Migration and Social Expenditure," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1396.
    2. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, 2014. "Tax policy with uncertain future costs: Some simple models," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 240-253, August.
    3. John Creedy & Grant M. Scobie, 2005. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 38(1), pages 19-39, March.
    4. Robert A. Buckle & Amy A. Cruickshank, 2014. "The requirements for fiscal sustainability in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 111-128, August.
    5. Creedy, John & Alvarado, Jose, 1998. "Social Expenditure Projections: A Stochastic Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 203-212, September.
    6. John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/28, New Zealand Treasury.
    7. John Creedy (ed.), 2007. "New Developments in the Economics of Population Ageing," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12568.
    8. John Creedy (ed.), 1995. "The Economics Of Ageing," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 540.
    9. Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/11, New Zealand Treasury.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Ball & John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2015. "Long-run Fiscal Projections under Uncertainty: The Case of New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 15/10, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, 2014. "Tax policy with uncertain future costs: Some simple models," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 240-253, August.
    3. John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2017. "Debt projections and fiscal sustainability with feedback effects," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 237-261, September.
    4. Matthew Bell & Paul Rodway, 2014. "Treasury's 2013 long-term fiscal statement: Assumptions and projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 139-152, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population; projections; stochastic simulation; social expenditure; fiscal costs; New Zealand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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