Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections
This paper presents stochastic projections for 13 categories of social spending in New Zealand over the period 2011-2061. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation methods, following Creedy and Scobie (2005). Emphasis is placed on the considerable uncertainty involved in projecting future expenditure levels.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand|
Phone: +64-4-472 2733
Fax: +64-4-473 0982
Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Creedy, John & Alvarado, Jose, 1998.
"Social Expenditure Projections: A Stochastic Approach,"
Australian Economic Papers,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 203-12, September.
- Alvarado, J. & Creedy, J., 1997. "Social Expenditure Projections: A Stochastic Approach," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 546, The University of Melbourne.
- John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/28, New Zealand Treasury.
- John Creedy (ed.), 2007. "New Developments in the Economics of Population Ageing," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12568.
- José Alvardo & John Creedy, 1998. "Population Ageing, Migration and Social Expenditure," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1396.
- Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/11, New Zealand Treasury.
- John Creedy & Grant M. Scobie, 2005. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 38(1), pages 19-39, 03.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:13/06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Web and Publishing Team, The Treasury)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.