Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections
This paper presents stochastic projections for 13 categories of social spending in New Zealand over the period 2011-2061. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation methods, following Creedy and Scobie (2005). Emphasis is placed on the considerable uncertainty involved in projecting future expenditure levels.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2013|
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- José Alvardo & John Creedy, 1998. "Population Ageing, Migration and Social Expenditure," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1396.
- Creedy, John & Alvarado, Jose, 1998.
"Social Expenditure Projections: A Stochastic Approach,"
Australian Economic Papers,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 203-212, September.
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- John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/28, New Zealand Treasury.
- John Creedy (ed.), 2007. "New Developments in the Economics of Population Ageing," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12568.
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