Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force
The "baby boom" that followed World War II, and the subsequent "baby bust," have cast a long shadow over the Canadian population, society, and economy. Drawing on a series of counterfactual simulations, this paper considers what the year 2001 would have looked like if things had been different - if there had been no baby boom, or no bust, or if the bust had been delayed, to take three examples. The paper then considers what will happen in the coming decades under a number of alternative assumptions. A major finding is that the boom had much less impact on the 2001 age structure of the population and labour force than did the bust that followed. For the future, population aging, slower rates of growth, and increased dependency ratios are likely features, but one should be careful not to overestimate the prospective "dependency burden."
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 28 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: University of Toronto Press Journals Division 5201 Dufferin Street Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3H 5T8|
Web page: http://economics.ca/cpp/
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.utpjournals.com/cpp/ Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ron Lesthaeghe & Paul Willems, 1999. "Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(2), pages 211-228.
- Denton, Frank T & Spencer, Byron G, 1989. "Macro-effects of Changes in Household Preferences for Children: Simulated History and Future Time Paths," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 2(3), pages 165-188.
- Paul Beaudry & Thomas Lemieux & Daniel Parent, 2000.
"What is Happening in the Youth Labour Market in Canada?,"
Canadian Public Policy,
University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(s1), pages 59-83, July.
- Paul Beaudry & Thomas Lemieux & Daniel Parent, 1999. "What Is Happening in the Youth Labour Market in Canada?," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-44, CIRANO.
- McMillan, Henry M. & Baesel, Jerome B., 1990. "The macroeconomic impact of the baby boom generation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 167-195.
- John Creedy & Grant M. Scobie, 2005. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 38(1), pages 19-39, 03.
- Tim Dowd & Ralph Monaco & Jeffry Janoska, 1998. "Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-term Simulation Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 239-262.
- Faini,Riccardo C. & de Melo,Jaime & Zimmermann,Klaus (ed.), 1999. "Migration," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521662338, February.
- Richard Disney, 1996. "Can We Afford to Grow Older?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026204157x, July.
- Frank Denton & Byron Spencer, 1999. "How old is old? Revising the definition based on life table criteria," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 147-159.
- Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1996. "How Old is Old? Revising the Definition Based on Life Table Criteria," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 2, McMaster University.
- F.T. Denton & B.G. Spencer, 1996. "How Old Is Old? revising the definition Based on Life Table Criteria," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 316, McMaster University.