IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mcm/sedapp/146.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Population Aging in Canada: Software for Exploring the Implications for the Labour Force and the Productive Capacity of the Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Frank T Denton
  • Christine H Feaver
  • Byron G Spencer

Abstract

This report has two purposes: (1) to introduce a new version of the MEDS (Models of the Economic Demographic System) software; and (2) to apply it in a series of illustrative projections. The software is designed to illustrate the medium- to longer-term responses of the Canadian population and economy to a wide range of factors on either the demographic side, such as changes in rates of fertility, migration, and mortality, or the economic side, such as changes in the rate of technical progress or the educational attainment of young people or of new immigrants. "Standard" projections are provided, together with nineteen alternative projections. (For some illustrative projections, see http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/qsep.) The range of projections indicates the breadth of applications for which MEDS has been designed. It serves also to provide some quantitative measures of the likely demographic and economic consequences of population aging, and indicates the scope for evaluating policy initiatives by means of simulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank T Denton & Christine H Feaver & Byron G Spencer, 2005. "Population Aging in Canada: Software for Exploring the Implications for the Labour Force and the Productive Capacity of the Economy," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 146, McMaster University.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcm:sedapp:146
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/sedap/p/sedap146.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2002. "Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 28(3), pages 443-459, September.
    2. Richard Easterlin, 1978. "What will 1984 be like? Socioeconomic implications of recent twists in age structure," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 15(4), pages 397-432, November.
    3. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 1996. "The Future Population of Canada and Its Age Distribution," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 3, McMaster University.
    4. Becker, Gary S, 1992. "Fertility and the Economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 5(3), pages 185-201, August.
    5. F.T. Denton & B.G. Spencer, 1996. "Population Aging and the Maintenance of Social Support Systems," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 320, McMaster University.
    6. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "Population, Labour Force and Long-term Economic Growth," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 336, McMaster University.
    7. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "Demographic Trends, Labour Force Participation, and Long-term Growth," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 334, McMaster University.
    8. Frank T. Denton, 2004. "Exploring the Use of a Nonparametrically Generated Instrumental Variable in the Estimation of a Linear Parametric Equation," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 390, McMaster University.
    9. Candace L. Kemp & Carolyn J. Rosenthal & Margaret Denton, 2004. "Financial Planning for Later Life: Subjective Understandings of Catalysts and Constraints," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 118, McMaster University.
    10. Faini,Riccardo C. & de Melo,Jaime & Zimmermann,Klaus (ed.), 1999. "Migration," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521662338, September.
    11. Candace L. Kemp & Carolyn J. Rosenthal & Margaret Denton, 2004. "Financial Planning for Later Life: Subjective Understandings of Catalysts and Constraints," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 389, McMaster University.
    12. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Denton, Frank T & Spencer, Byron G, 1973. "A Simulation Analysis of the Effects of Population Change on a Neoclassical Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 356-375, Part I, M.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nabil Annabi & Maxime Fougère & Simon Harvey, 2009. "Inter‐temporal and Inter‐industry Effects of Population Ageing: A General Equilibrium Assessment for Canada," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 23(4), pages 609-651, December.
    2. Isik U. Zeytinoglu & Margaret Denton, 2006. "Satisfied Workers, Retained Workers: Effects of Work and Work Environment on Homecare Workers' Job Satisfaction, Stress, Physical Health, and Retention," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 412, McMaster University.
    3. Margaret Denton & Karen Kusch, 2006. "Well-Being Throughout the Senior Years: An Issues Paper on Key Events and Transitions in Later Life," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 411, McMaster University.
    4. Margaret Denton & Linda Boos, 2007. "Gender Inequality in the Wealth of Older Canadians," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 413, McMaster University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 339, McMaster University.
    2. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Economic Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 340, McMaster University.
    3. Margaret Denton & Linda Boos, 2007. "Gender Inequality in the Wealth of Older Canadians," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 413, McMaster University.
    4. Isik U. Zeytinoglu & Margaret Denton, 2006. "Satisfied Workers, Retained Workers: Effects of Work and Work Environment on Homecare Workers' Job Satisfaction, Stress, Physical Health, and Retention," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 412, McMaster University.
    5. Margaret Denton & Karen Kusch, 2006. "Well-Being Throughout the Senior Years: An Issues Paper on Key Events and Transitions in Later Life," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 411, McMaster University.
    6. Larry E. Jones & Michele Tertilt, 2006. "An Economic History of Fertility in the U.S.: 1826-1960," NBER Working Papers 12796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Demographic changes, labor effort and economic growth: empirical evidence from Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 169-188, February.
    8. Blanco, Laura Cristina, 2019. "Inertial reproduction: is the two-child psychology the rule in Costa Rica?," Revista de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de Costa Rica, vol. 37(1), January.
    9. Derya Bilgin & Sibel Selim, 2021. "Analysis in Terms of Adaptation Hypothesis of the Spatial Relationship Between Migration And Fertility in Turkey," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 64(64), pages 47-72, December.
    10. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "Immigration, Labour Force, and the Age Structure of the Population," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 335, McMaster University.
    11. Amy Tsui, 1982. "The family formation process among U.S. marriage cohorts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(1), pages 1-27, February.
    12. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    13. Kaixing Huang, 2016. "Population Growth, Human Capital Accumulation, and the Long-Run Dynamics of Economic Growth," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2016-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    14. Robert Fenge & Beatrice Scheubel, 2017. "Pensions and fertility: back to the roots," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 93-139, January.
    15. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Fertility and output in Europe: new evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 143-156, March.
    16. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Department of Economics Working Papers 1999-03, McMaster University.
    17. Ahmad, Khalil & Ali, Amjad & Irfan Chani, Muhammad, 2014. "Does sector specific foreign aid matter for fertility? An empirical analysis form Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Paraskevi K. Salamaliki, 2017. "Births, Marriages, and the Economic Environment in Greece: Empirical Evidence Over Time," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 218-237, June.
    19. Keisuke Kondo, 2019. "Does agglomeration discourage fertility? Evidence from the Japanese General Social Survey 2000–2010," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 677-704.
    20. Kaixing Huang, 2016. "Demographic Transition and the Unobservable Scale Effects of Economic Growth," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2016-08, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population; labour force; economy; projection system;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcm:sedapp:146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demcmca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.