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Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force

Author

Listed:
  • Frank T. Denton
  • Christine H. Feaver
  • Byron G. Spencer

Abstract

The "baby boom" that followed World War II, and the subsequent "baby bust", have cast a long shadow over the Canadian population, society, and economy. Drawing on a series of counterfactual projections, this paper considers what the year 2001 would have looked like if things had been different if there had been no baby boom or no bust, or if the bust had been delayed, to take three examples. The paper then considers what will happen in the coming decades under a number of alternative assumptions. A major finding is that the boom had much less impact on the 2001 age structure of the population and labour force than did the bust that followed. For the future, population aging, slower rates of growth, and increased dependency ratios are likely features, but one should be careful not to overestimate the prospective "dependency burden".

Suggested Citation

  • Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2002. "Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 67, McMaster University.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcm:sedapp:67
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    File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/sedap/p/sedap67.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2005. "Population Aging in Canada: Software for Exploring the Implications for the Labour Force and the Productive Capacity of the Economy," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 403, McMaster University.
    2. Joe Ruggeri & Yang Zou, 2006. "Measures of Fiscal Dependency," Public Finance Review, , vol. 34(4), pages 381-403, July.
    3. J.C. Herbert Emery & David Still & Tom Cottrell, 2012. "Can We Avoid a Sick Fiscal Future? The Non-Sustainability of Health-Care Spending on an Aging Population," SPP Research Papers, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, vol. 5(31), October.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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