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Population Aging in Canada: Software for Exploring the Implications for the Labour Force and the Productive Capacity of the Economy

  • Frank T. Denton
  • Christine H. Feaver
  • Byron G. Spencer

This report has two purposes: (1) to introduce a new version of the MEDS (Models of the Economic Demographic System) software; and (2) to apply it in a series of illustrative projections. The software is designed to illustrate the medium- to longer-term responses of the Canadian population and economy to a wide range of factors on either the demographic side, such as changes in rates of fertility, migration, and mortality, or the economic side, such as changes in the rate of technical progress or the educational attainment of young people or of new immigrants. "Standard" projections are provided, together with nineteen alternative projections. (For some illustrative projections, see http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/qsep.) The range of projections indicates the breadth of applications for which MEDS has been designed. It serves also to provide some quantitative measures of the likely demographic and economic consequences of population aging, and indicates the scope for evaluating policy initiatives by means of simulation.

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File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/qsep/p/qsep403.pdf
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Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports with number 403.

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Length: 152 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mcm:qseprr:403
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Web page: http://www.mcmaster.ca/economics/
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  1. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "Population, Labour Force and Long-term Economic Growth," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 336, McMaster University.
  2. Candace L. Kemp & Carolyn J. Rosenthal & Margaret Denton, 2004. "Financial Planning for Later Life: Subjective Understandings of Catalysts and Constraints," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 389, McMaster University.
  3. F.T. Denton & C. Feaver & B.G. Spencer, 1996. "The Future Population of Canada and Its Age Distribution," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 317, McMaster University.
  4. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "Demographic Trends, Labour Force Participation, and Long-term Growth," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 334, McMaster University.
  6. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2002. "Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 28(3), pages 443-459, September.
  7. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1996. "Population Aging and the Maintenance of Social Support Systems," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 9, McMaster University.
  8. Denton, Frank T & Spencer, Byron G, 1973. "A Simulation Analysis of the Effects of Population Change on a Neoclassical Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 356-75, Part I, M.
  9. Gary S. Becker, . "Fertility and the Economy," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 92-3, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  10. Richard Easterlin, 1978. "What will 1984 be like? Socioeconomic implications of recent twists in age structure," Demography, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 397-432, November.
  11. Candace L. Kemp & Carolyn J. Rosenthal & Margaret Denton, 2004. "Financial Planning for Later Life: Subjective Understandings of Catalysts and Constraints," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 118, McMaster University.
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