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Inter‐temporal and Inter‐industry Effects of Population Ageing: A General Equilibrium Assessment for Canada

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  • Nabil Annabi
  • Maxime Fougère
  • Simon Harvey

Abstract

. This paper examines the inter‐industry and labour market occupational effects of future demographic changes in Canada, using a computable overlapping‐generations model. In addition to the impact of slower labour force growth, the model captures the shift in sectoral composition of final demand of older individuals. The simulation results indicate that the growth in real GDP per capita could decline by nearly one percentage point between 2006 and 2050. The results also suggest that the equilibrium unemployment rate is likely to decline by more than two percentage points in the long run. However, the impact varies significantly at the occupational level.

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  • Nabil Annabi & Maxime Fougère & Simon Harvey, 2009. "Inter‐temporal and Inter‐industry Effects of Population Ageing: A General Equilibrium Assessment for Canada," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 23(4), pages 609-651, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:labour:v:23:y:2009:i:4:p:609-651
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9914.2009.00464.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. David Card, 1995. "The Wage Curve: A Review," Working Papers 722, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    5. Frank T Denton & Christine H Feaver & Byron G Spencer, 2005. "Population Aging in Canada: Software for Exploring the Implications for the Labour Force and the Productive Capacity of the Economy," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 146, McMaster University.
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    8. Fougere, Maxime & Mercenier, Jean & Merette, Marcel, 2007. "A sectoral and occupational analysis of population ageing in Canada using a dynamic CGE overlapping generations model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 690-711, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Annabi, Nabil & Harvey, Simon & Lan, Yu, 2011. "Public expenditures on education, human capital and growth in Canada: An OLG model analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 852-865.
    2. Johannes Berger & Thomas Davoine & Philip Schuster & Ludwig Strohner, 2016. "Cross-country differences in the contribution of future migration to old-age financing," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(6), pages 1160-1184, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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