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Inter-temporal and Inter-industry Effects of Population Ageing: A General Equilibrium Assessment for Canada

  • Nabil Annabi
  • Maxime Fougère
  • Simon Harvey

This paper examines the inter-industry and labour market occupational effects of future demographic changes in Canada, using a computable overlapping-generations model. In addition to the impact of slower labour force growth, the model captures the shift in sectoral composition of final demand of older individuals. The simulation results indicate that the growth in real GDP per capita could decline by nearly one percentage point between 2006 and 2050. The results also suggest that the equilibrium unemployment rate is likely to decline by more than two percentage points in the long run. However, the impact varies significantly at the occupational level. Copyright 2009 CEIS, Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9914.2009.00464.x
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Article provided by CEIS in its journal LABOUR.

Volume (Year): 23 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 609-651

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Handle: RePEc:bla:labour:v:23:y:2009:i:4:p:609-651
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  1. J.H.L. Dewhurst, 2006. "Estimating The Effect Of Projected Household Composition Change On Production In Scotland," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 186, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  2. Frank T Denton & Christine H Feaver & Byron G Spencer, 2005. "Population Aging in Canada: Software for Exploring the Implications for the Labour Force and the Productive Capacity of the Economy," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 146, McMaster University.
  3. Fougere, Maxime & Mercenier, Jean & Merette, Marcel, 2007. "A sectoral and occupational analysis of population ageing in Canada using a dynamic CGE overlapping generations model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 690-711, July.
  4. Turalay Kenc & William Perraudin, 1996. "Pension Systems in Europe: A General Equilibrium Study," Archive Working Papers 018, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  5. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
  6. David Card, 1995. "The Wage Curve: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 285-299, June.
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