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Demographic Trends, Labour Force Participation, and Long-term Growth

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Listed:
  • Frank T. Denton
  • Byron G. Spencer

Abstract

Rapid population growth ceased in Canada when the baby boom ended, and gave way to the baby bust; rapid labour force growth lasted for another two decades. As the century closes growth has become much more dependent on immigration. This paper reviews the consequences of the boom-bust sequence for the age distribution of the population and labour force since the 1950s, and provides measures of labour productivity growth over that period. It considers also the implications of three alternative projections extending to 2036, and calculates for each the productivity growth that would be required to attain specified rates of increase in total and per capita gross domestic product. It concludes that to sustain even modest gains in GDP per capita will soon require gains in productivity greater than have been observed in the last two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "Demographic Trends, Labour Force Participation, and Long-term Growth," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 334, McMaster University.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcm:qseprr:334
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "Immigration, Labour Force, and the Age Structure of the Population," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 24, McMaster University.
    2. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1996. "The Changing Economic Circumstances of the Older Population: A Cohort Analysis," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 8, McMaster University.
    3. Alan G. Green & David A. Green, 1999. "The Economic Goals of Canada's Immigration Policy, Past and Present," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 25(4), pages 425-451, December.
    4. Paul Beaudry & David A. Green, 2000. "Cohort patterns in Canadian earnings: assessing the role of skill premia in inequality trends," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 907-936, November.
    5. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "PMEDS-D Users' Manual," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 326, McMaster University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "Immigration, Labour Force, and the Age Structure of the Population," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 335, McMaster University.
    2. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 339, McMaster University.
    3. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "Population, Labour Force, and Long-term Economic Growth," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 25, McMaster University.
    4. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2005. "Population Aging in Canada: Software for Exploring the Implications for the Labour Force and the Productive Capacity of the Economy," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 403, McMaster University.
    5. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Economic Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 340, McMaster University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic trends; labour force participation; productivity; growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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