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Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-term Simulation Model


  • Tim Dowd
  • Ralph Monaco
  • Jeffry Janoska


Demographics, especially the size and the age composition of the population, contribute substantially to the growth and structure of any economy. Over the next 55 years, the age composition of the US population will change dramatically, as the post-World War II 'baby boom' ages into retirement. In this paper, we use a long-term interindustry macro model of the US economy to examine how the age composition of the US population affects overall economic growth as well as the output/employment structure of the economy. We find that the system of funding government commitments to pension and medical care for the elderly is a primary channel through which demographic effects translate into economic effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Dowd & Ralph Monaco & Jeffry Janoska, 1998. "Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-term Simulation Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 239-262.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:10:y:1998:i:3:p:239-262 DOI: 10.1080/762947110

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    Cited by:

    1. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2002. "Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 28(3), pages 443-459, September.
    2. Paula C. Albuquerque & João C. Lopes, 2010. "Economic impacts of ageing: an inter-industry approach," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(12), pages 970-986, October.
    3. Kijin Kim & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings & Kurt Kratena, 2016. "Household disaggregation and forecasting in a regional econometric input–output model," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 73-91, March.
    4. Rossella Bardazzi & Marco Barnabani, 2001. "A Long-run Disaggregated Cross-section and Time-series Demand System: An Application to Italy," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 365-389.
    5. Martin Distelkamp & Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer & Marc Ingo Wolter, 2004. "Demographie und Ökonomie: Einfluss der Bevölkerungsstruktur auf die Konsumnachfrage," GWS Discussion Paper Series 04-1, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    6. Gerd Ahlert, 2001. "The Economic Effects of the Soccer World Cup 2006 in Germany with Regard to Different Financing," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 109-127.


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