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Population Forecasts, Fiscal Policy, and Risk

  • Shripad Tuljapurkar
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    This paper describes how stochastic population forecasts are used to inform and analyze policies related to government spending on the elderly, mainly in the context of the industrialized nations. The paper first presents methods for making probabilistic forecasts of demographic rates, mortality, fertility, and immigration, and shows how these are combined to make stochastic forecasts of population number and composition, using forecasts of the U.S. population by way of illustration. Next, the paper discusses how demographic models and economic models can be combined into an integrated projection model of transfer systems such as social security. Finally, the paper shows how these integrated models describe various dimensions of policy-relevant risk, and discusses the nature and implications of risk in evaluating policy alternatives.

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    Paper provided by Levy Economics Institute in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number wp_471.

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    Date of creation: Aug 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_471
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    1. Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth, 2006. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Kevin M. White, 2002. "Longevity Advances in High-Income Countries, 1955-96," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 59-76.
    3. Ron Lesthaeghe & Paul Willems, 1999. "Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(2), pages 211-228.
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