Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections
It is widely recognised that as the population ages there will be potentially significant implications for a wide range of economic variables, including in particular the fiscal costs of social expenditures. Long term fiscal planning requires estimates of the possible future path of public spending. This paper presents projections for 14 categories of social spending. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation. Attention is focussed on health expenditures which are disaggregated into seven broad classes. In addition we explore the impacts of alternative hypothesis about future health costs. While it can be predicted with some confidence that overall social expenditures will rise, the results suggest that long term planning would be enriched by recognising the distributions about point estimates of projected social costs.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand|
Phone: +64-4-472 2733
Fax: +64-4-473 0982
Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Stephenson & Grant Scobie, 2002. "The Economics of Population Ageing," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/04, New Zealand Treasury.
- Polackova, Hana, 1997. "Population aging and financing of government liabilities in New Zealand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1703, The World Bank.
- Erwin Diewert & Denis Lawrence, 1999. "Measuring New Zealand’s Productivity," Treasury Working Paper Series 99/05, New Zealand Treasury.
- Creedy, John & Alvarado, Jose, 1998.
"Social Expenditure Projections: A Stochastic Approach,"
Australian Economic Papers,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 203-12, September.
- Alvarado, J. & Creedy, J., 1997. "Social Expenditure Projections: A Stochastic Approach," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 546, The University of Melbourne.
- Robert Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Julie Tam, 2002.
"A structural var approach to estimating budget balance targets,"
New Zealand Economic Papers,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 149-175.
- Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Julie Tam, 2001. "A Structural VAR Approach to Estimating Budget Balance Targets," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/11, New Zealand Treasury.
- Guest, R.S. & McDonald, I.M., 1999.
"Population Ageing and Projections of Government Social Outlays in Australia,"
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
689, The University of Melbourne.
- Ross S. Guest & Ian M. McDonald, 2000. "Population Ageing and Projections of Government Social Outlays in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 33(1), pages 49-64.
- Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/11, New Zealand Treasury.
- John Creedy, 2000. "The Growth Of Social Expenditure And Population Ageing," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 19(4), pages 15-32, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:02/28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Web and Publishing Team, The Treasury)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.