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Population aging and financing of government liabilities in New Zealand

  • Polackova, Hana

In New Zealand in the next 50 years, an aging population is expected to elevate government liabilities and weaken the government's fiscal position. To maintain fiscal balance, the government must either substantially pre-fund future increases in its liabilities or significantly raise taxes in the 2030's-40's, following few small possible tax cuts in the next 10 to 15 years. Expected fiscal problems are related to the increasing costliness of publicly providing for health care and retirement. Moreover, the aging population's negative effects on the fiscal balance could be exacerbated by any slackening in economic performance or in fiscal prudence. Long-term fiscal projections for the country, and literature on the problem, indicate that the most effective way to contain the expected rise in government liabilities is to reform health care and pension policies.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 1703.

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Date of creation: 28 Feb 1997
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1703
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  1. Robert J. Barro, 1988. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," NBER Working Papers 2685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Arrau, Patricio & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1995. "Pensions systems and reform : country experiences and research issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1470, The World Bank.
  3. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Alicia H. Munnell., 1992. "Current taxation of qualified pension plans: has the time come?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 12-25.
  5. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  6. Valdes-Prieto, Salvador, 1994. "Administrative charges in pensions in Chile, Malaysia, Zambia, and the United States," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1372, The World Bank.
  7. Munnell, Alicia H, 1976. "Private Pensions and Saving: New Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(5), pages 1013-32, October.
  8. Alan Auerbach & Bruce Baker & Laurence Kotlikoff & Jan Walliser, 1997. "Generational Accounting in New Zealand: Is There Generational Balance?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 201-228, May.
  9. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1995. "Pension reform and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1471, The World Bank.
  10. Olivia S. Mitchell & Ping-Lung Hsin, . "Public Pension Governance and Performance," Pension Research Council Working Papers 94-1, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
  11. Atkinson, A.B., 1987. "Income maintenance and social insurance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 779-908 Elsevier.
  12. Atkinson, A. B., 1995. "Is the Welfare State necessarily an obstacle to economic growth?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 723-730, April.
  13. Blejer, Mario I & Cheasty, Adrienne, 1991. "The Measurement of Fiscal Deficits: Analytical and Methodological Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1644-78, December.
  14. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
  15. Martin Feldstein, 1994. "Fiscal Policies, Capital Formation, and Capitalism," NBER Working Papers 4885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Vittas, Dimitri & Iglesias, Augusto, 1992. "The rationale and performance of personal pension plans in Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 867, The World Bank.
  17. Willem H. Buiter & K.M. Kletzer, 1994. "Ponzi Finance, Government Solvency and the Redundancy or Usefulness of Public Debt," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1070, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  18. Hurd, Michael D, 1990. "Research on the Elderly: Economic Status, Retirement, and Consumption and Saving," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 565-637, June.
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