Implicit pension debt, transition cost, options, and impact of China's pension reform : a computable general equilibrium analysis
The main problems with China's pension system--the pension burdens of state enterprises and the agency of the population--have deepened in recent years. Using a new computable general equilibrium model that differentiates between three types of enterprise ownership and 22 groups in the labor force, the authors estimate the effects of pension reform in China, comparing various options for financing the transition cost. They examine the impact that various reform options would have on the system's sustainability, on overall economic growth, and on income distribution. The results are promising. The current pay-as-you-go system, with a notional individual account, remains unchanged in the first scenario examined. Simulations show this system to be unsustainable. Expanding coverage under this system would improve financial viability in the short run but weaken it in the long run. Other scenarios assume that the transition cost will be financed by various taxes and that a new, fully funded individual account will be established in 2001. The authors compare the impact of a corporate tax, a value-added tax, a personal income tax, and a consumption tax. They estimate the annual transition cost to be about 0.6 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between 2000 and 2010, declining to 0.3 percent by 2050. Using a personal income tax to finance the transition cost would best promote economic growth and reduce income inequality. Levying a social security tax and injecting fiscal resources to finance the transition costs would help make the reformed public pillar sustainable. To finance a benefit of 20 percent of the average wage, a contribution rate of only 10 percent-12.5 percent would be enough to balance the basic pension pillar. Gradually increasing the retirement age would further reduce the contribution rate.
|Date of creation:||28 Feb 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1998.
"The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security,"
in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 215-264
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1996. "The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security," NBER Working Papers 5761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Felipe G. Morandé, 1996.
"Savings in Chile: What Went Right?,"
Research Department Publications
4030, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Xu, Dianqing, 1996. "The chasm in the transition: A CGE analysis of Chinese economic reform," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 117-139, April.
- Disney, Richard, 1999. "Notional accounts as a pension reform strategy : an evaluation," Social Protection Discussion Papers 21302, The World Bank.
- Gramlich, Edward M, 1996.
"Different Approaches for Dealing with Social Security,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 358-62, May.
- Edward M. Gramlich, 1996. "Different Approaches for Dealing with Social Security," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 55-66, Summer.
- Kotlikoff, Laurence, 1996. "Privatizing School Security at Home and Abroad," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 368-72, May.
- Schwarz, Anita M. & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 1999. "Taking stock of pension reforms around the world," Social Protection Discussion Papers 20533, The World Bank.
- Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002.
Handbook of Public Economics,
in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324
- Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
- Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1992.
"Social Security Rules and Marginal Tax Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
3962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Howe, Howard, 1975. "Development of the extended linear expenditure system from simple saving assumptions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 305-310, July.
- Vittas, Dimitri, 1995. "Sequencing social security, pension, and insurance reform," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1551, The World Bank.
- Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-26, Sept./Oct.
- Wang, Zhi & Kinsey, Jean, 1994. "Consumption and saving behavior under strict and partial rationing," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 83-100.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1995. "Pension reform and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1471, The World Bank.
- Pereira, Alfredo M. & Shoven, John B., 1988. "Survey of dynamic computational general equilibrium models for tax policy evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 401-436.
- Palacios, Robert & Rocha, Roberto, 1998. "The Hungarian pension system in transition," Social Protection Discussion Papers 20048, The World Bank.
- Kenneth A. Lewis & Laurence S. Seidman, 2002. "Funding Social Security: The Transition in a Life-Cycle Growth Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 159-180, Spring.
- Atkinson, A.B., 1987. "Income maintenance and social insurance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 779-908 Elsevier.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2555. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.