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La réforme des retraites en Chine : enjeux, options et conséquences

Listed author(s):
  • Yan Wang
  • Fan Zhai

[eng] China’s pension reform : challenges, options and impacts China’s population has been aging rapidly, and the burdens of supporting the elderly are distributed unevenly across regions and sectors. This study discusses the current reform efforts, compares various options for financing the implicit pension debt and estimates the effects of pension reform on the sustainability of the system. Simulation results show that the current pay-as-you-go system is not financially sustainable and the implicit pension debt is estimated at around 46 to 63 percent of GDP in 2000. The public pillar becomes financially sustainable if tax revenues will be injected to finance the transition cost. The paper proposes to use value-added tax revenue to finance the transition cost, which would make the new multipillar system financially sustainable without damping economic growth. JEL classification : H55, D58, O53, P52 [fre] La population chinoise vieillit rapidement et la charge du soutien aux personnes âgées est répartie inégalement parmi les régions et les secteurs. La présente étude examine les initiatives de réformes actuelles, compare différentes options de financement du déficit implicite du système de retraite et évalue les effets de la réforme des retraites sur la viabilité du système. Les résultats de simulations indiquent que le système actuel par répartition n’est pas financièrement viable et que le déficit implicite du système de retraite est estimé à environ 46 à 63 % du PIB en 2000. Le pilier public deviendra financièrement viable si les recettes fiscales sont réinjectées pour financer les coûts de transition. Cet article propose d’utiliser les recettes de TVA pour financer les coûts de transition, ce qui permettrait au nouveau système à plusieurs piliers d’être financièrement viable, sans peser toutefois sur la croissance économique. Classification JEL : H55, D58, O53, P52

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue d'économie financière.

Volume (Year): 77 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 309-328

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Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2004_num_77_4_4189
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2004.4189
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  1. James, Estelle, 1992. "Income security for old age : conceptual background and major issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 977, The World Bank.
  2. Kenneth A. Lewis & Laurence S. Seidman, 2002. "Funding Social Security: The Transition in a Life-Cycle Growth Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 159-180, Spring.
  3. Arrau, Patricio, 1990. "Social security reform : the capital accumulation and intergenerational distribution effect," Policy Research Working Paper Series 512, The World Bank.
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