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Treasury's 2013 long-term fiscal statement: Assumptions and projections

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  • Matthew Bell
  • Paul Rodway

Abstract

Affording Our Future , the New Zealand Treasury's 2013 long-term fiscal statement, tests fiscal sustainability over the next 40 or so years through a series of projections. These projections endeavour to capture the effect of population ageing and other influences on the future government budget balances and public debt. This paper explains the modelling approaches, major assumptions, and sensitivities around the assumptions. It provides results for two scenarios: 'Resume Historic Cost Growth' and 'Spending Path that Maintains 20% Net Debt'. The paper also discusses the costs of delay in addressing the fiscal pressures produced by an ageing population structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Bell & Paul Rodway, 2014. "Treasury's 2013 long-term fiscal statement: Assumptions and projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 139-152, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:nzecpp:v:48:y:2014:i:2:p:139-152
    DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2013.874391
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, 2014. "Tax policy with uncertain future costs: Some simple models," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 240-253, August.
    2. John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2014. "Social expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 196-208, August.
    3. Robert A. Buckle & Amy A. Cruickshank, 2014. "The requirements for fiscal sustainability in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 111-128, August.
    4. Geoff Bascand & Kim Dunstan, 2014. "New Zealand's demographics and population ageing," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 129-138, August.
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