The experience of some OECD economies on tax smoothing
Observed random walk behaviour of a tax rate does not necessarily support the tax smoothing hypothesis though the latter implies the former. This article presents a direct test of tax smoothing by showing that if the tax smoothing hypothesis holds then the future tax rate should cointegrate with the current permanent government expenditure rate even though the tax rate is a random walk. This test is a direct and robust test of a number of ‘random walk models’ available in the literature. This procedure also enables us to differentiate among ‘strong tax smoothing’, ‘weak tax smoothing’ and ‘no-tax smoothing’, all of which are consistent with the random walk behaviour of a tax rate. Application of this test to Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the UK and the US show evidence in support of weak forms of tax smoothing.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 45 (2013)
Issue (Month): 16 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
- Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "Intertemporal Tax-Smoothing and the Government Budget Surplus: Canada and the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1033-45, November.
- Roubini, N., 1989.
"Current Account And Budget Deficits In An Intertemporal Model Of Consumption And Taxation Smoothing. A Solution To The "Feldstein-Horioka" Puzzel,"
569, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Nouriel Roubini, 1988. "Current Account and Budget Deficits in an Intertemporal Model of Consumption and Taxation Smoothing. A Solution to the "Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle"?," NBER Working Papers 2773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dirk Niepelt, 2004.
"Tax Smoothing versus Tax Shifting,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(1), pages 27-51, January.
- Olekalns, Nilss, 1997.
"Australian Evidence on Tax Smoothing and the Optimal Budget Surplus,"
The Economic Record,
The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(222), pages 248-57, September.
- Olekalns, N., 1996. "Australian Evidence on Tax Smoothing and the Optimal Budget Surplus," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 538, The University of Melbourne.
- Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1982.
"Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in an Economy Without Capital,"
532, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
- Lusine Lusinyan & John Thornton, 2011. "Unit roots, structural breaks and cointegration in the UK public finances, 1750-2004," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2583-2592.
- Rajaguru, Gulasekaran & Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2008. "Temporal aggregation, cointegration and causality inference," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 223-226, December.
- Hungerbühler, Mathias & Lehmann, Etienne & Parmentier, Alexis & Van der Linden, Bruno, 2005.
"Optimal Redistributive Taxation in a Search Equilibrium Model,"
IZA Discussion Papers
1460, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Mathias Hungerbühler & Etienne Lehmann & Alexis Parmentier & Bruno Van Der Linden, 2006. "Optimal Redistributive Taxation in a Search Equilibrium Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 743-767.
- Mathias Hungerbuehler & Etienne Lehmann & Alexis Parmentier & Bruno Van Der Linden, 2006. "Optimal Redistributive Taxation in a Search Equilibrium Model," Post-Print hal-01248161, HAL.
- Mark Strazicich, 2002. "International evidence of tax smoothing in a panel of industrial countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2325-2331.
- V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1999.
"Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
6891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- R. Pasten & J. P. Cover, 2011. "Does the Chilean government smooth taxes? A tax-smoothing model with revenue collection from a natural resource," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 421-425.
- Barro, Robert J., 1979.
"On the Determination of the Public Debt,"
3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
- António Afonso, 2005.
"Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case,"
FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis,
Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
- Antonio Afonso, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability: the Unpleasant European Case," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 57, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Lusine Lusinyan & John Thornton, 2009. "The sustainability of South African fiscal policy: an historical perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 859-868.
- Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
- FLEURBAEY, Marc & MANIQUET, François, .
"Fair income tax,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
1845, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Mikhail Golosov & Narayana Kocherlakota & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2003.
"Optimal Indirect and Capital Taxation,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 569-587.
- Mikhail Golosov & Narayana R. Kocherlakota & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2001. "Optimal indirect and capital taxation," Working Papers 615, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Mikhail Golosov & Narayana R. Kocherlakota & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2001. "Optimal indirect and capital taxation," Staff Report 293, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Mikhail Golosov & Narayana Kocherlakota & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2002. "Optimal Indirect and Capital Taxation," Levine's Working Paper Archive 391749000000000449, David K. Levine.
- Mikhail Golosov & Narayana Kocherlakota & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2002. "Optimal Indirect and Capital Taxation," NajEcon Working Paper Reviews 391749000000000449, www.najecon.org.
- Stefania Albanesi & Christopher Sleet, 2004.
"Dynamic optimal taxation with private information,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
140, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Gerhard Reitschuler, 2010. "Fiscal Policy And Optimal Taxation: Evidence From A Tax Smoothing Exercise," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(2), pages 238-252, 05.
- Sahasakul, Chaipat, 1986. "The U.S. evidence on optimal taxation over time," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 251-275, November.
- Serletis, Apostolos & Schorn, Richard G, 1999. "International Evidence on the Tax- and Revenue-Smoothing Hypotheses," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 387-96, April.
- Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
- Bohn, Henning, 1990. "Tax Smoothing with Financial Instruments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1217-30, December.
- Robert J. Barro, 1981. "On the Predictability of Tax-Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 0636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/11, New Zealand Treasury.
- Johan Adler, 2006. "The Tax-smoothing Hypothesis: Evidence from Sweden, 1952-1999," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(1), pages 81-95, 03.
- Huang, Chao-Hsi & Lin, Kenneth S., 1993. "Deficits, government expenditures, and tax smoothing in the United States: 1929-1988," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 317-339, June.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:16:p:2305-2313. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.