IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/qualqt/v48y2014i3p1553-1572.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On minimizing the welfare cost of fiscal policy: evidence from South Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Ihtsham Padda

Abstract

This study evaluates whether India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka minimized the welfare cost of their fiscal policies? For this purpose it tests tax smoothing hypothesis and finds that there is a weak tax smoothing in Pakistan and Sri Lanka whilst fiscal policy in India has not been conducted in an optimal fashion in accordance with the predictions of the hypothesis. The difference in results is due to difference in budget deficits as the deficits of Pakistan and Sri Lanka are higher as compare to India so they are careful to reduce volatility in budget deficits by trying to keep close correspondence between taxes and expenditures while India, with comparatively less deficit, was more careful regarding its debt. Therefore, to minimize the cost a close correspondence between permanent expenditure and taxes are required. In this context the best policy option would be an initiation of prompt action program of tax base expansions and expenditure rationalization. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Ihtsham Padda, 2014. "On minimizing the welfare cost of fiscal policy: evidence from South Asia," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1553-1572, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:48:y:2014:i:3:p:1553-1572
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-013-9852-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11135-013-9852-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11135-013-9852-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Ashworth & Lynne Evans, 1998. "Seigniorage and tax smoothing in developing countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(6), pages 486-495, October.
    2. Mark Strazicich, 2002. "International evidence of tax smoothing in a panel of industrial countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2325-2331.
    3. Andrew Scott, 1999. "Does Tax Smoothing Imply Smooth Taxes?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0429, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Huang, Chao-Hsi & Lin, Kenneth S., 1993. "Deficits, government expenditures, and tax smoothing in the United States: 1929-1988," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 317-339, June.
    5. Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2013. "The experience of some OECD economies on tax smoothing," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2305-2313, June.
    6. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
    7. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Indicators 2012," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6014, December.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2005. "The government revenue and government expenditure nexus: empirical evidence from nine Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1203-1216, January.
    9. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-1273, November.
    10. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    11. Barro, Robert J, 1986. " U.S. Deficits since World War I," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 195-122.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Spend Now, Pay Later? Tax Smoothing and Fiscal Sustainability in South Asia," IMF Working Papers 1999/063, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    14. Ihtsham Ul Haq Padda & Naeem Akram, 2009. "The Impact of Tax Policies on Economic Growth: Evidence from South-Asian Economies," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 48(4), pages 961-971.
    15. Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "Intertemporal Tax-Smoothing and the Government Budget Surplus: Canada and the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1033-1045, November.
    16. Muhammad Aslam Chaudhary & Sabahat Anwar, 2000. "Foreign Debt, Dependency, and Economic Growth in South Asia," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 551-570.
    17. Cashin, P. & Haque, N. & Olekalns, N., 1999. "Spend Now, Pay Later? Tax Smoothing & Fiscal Sustainability in South Asia," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 700, The University of Melbourne.
    18. Sahasakul, Chaipat, 1986. "The U.S. evidence on optimal taxation over time," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 251-275, November.
    19. Evans, J. Lynne & Amey, Michael C., 1996. "Seigniorage and tax smoothing: Testing the extended tax-smoothing model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 111-125.
    20. Naeem Akram & Ihtsham ul Haq Padda & Mohammad Khan, 2008. "The Long Term Impact of Health on Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 487-500.
    21. Strazicich, Mark C., 1997. "Does Tax Smoothing Differ by the Level of Government? Time Series Evidence from Canada and the United States," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 305-326, April.
    22. Bohn, Henning, 1990. "Tax Smoothing with Financial Instruments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1217-1230, December.
    23. Cashin, Paul & Ul Haque, Nadeem & Olekalns, Nilss, 2003. "Tax smoothing, tax tilting and fiscal sustainability in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 47-67, January.
    24. Serletis, Apostolos & Schorn, Richard G, 1999. "International Evidence on the Tax- and Revenue-Smoothing Hypotheses," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 387-396, April.
    25. Cashin, P. & Olekalns, N. & Sahay, R., 1998. "Tax Smoothing in a Financially Repessed Economy: Evidence from India," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 656, The University of Melbourne.
    26. Nadeem Iqbal & Wasim Shahid Malik, 2010. "Budget Balance: Through Revenue or Spending Adjustment: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 611-630.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH & Foued Badr GABSI & Ameni MTIBAA, 2018. "Tax smoothing hypothesis: The Tunisian case," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(617), W), pages 169-178, Winter.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH & Foued Badr GABSI & Ameni MTIBAA, 2018. "Tax smoothing hypothesis: The Tunisian case," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(617), W), pages 169-178, Winter.
    2. Ihtsham ul Haq PADDA*, 2010. "On Minimizing the Welfare Cost of Fiscal Policy:Pakistan’s Case," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 20, pages 77-99.
    3. Taner Turan & Mesut Karakas & Halit Yanikkaya, 2014. "Tax Smoothing Hypothesis: A Turkish Case," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(4), pages 487-501, September.
    4. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric R., 2014. "Model uncertainty and intertemporal tax smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 289-314.
    5. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & John Loizides & Efthymios G. Tsionas, 2009. "Electoral Motives, Partisan Motives And Dynamic Optimality With Many Taxes: An International Investigation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 94-113, February.
    6. Johan Adler, 2006. "The Tax‐smoothing Hypothesis: Evidence from Sweden, 1952–1999," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(1), pages 81-95, March.
    7. Gerhard Reitschuler, 2010. "Fiscal Policy And Optimal Taxation: Evidence From A Tax Smoothing Exercise," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(2), pages 238-252, May.
    8. Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2013. "The experience of some OECD economies on tax smoothing," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2305-2313, June.
    9. Maria Cornachione Kula, 2004. "U.S. States, the Medicaid Program, and Tax Smoothing," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 490-511, January.
    10. Cashin, P. & Haque, N. & Olekalns, N., 1999. "Spend Now, Pay Later? Tax Smoothing & Fiscal Sustainability in South Asia," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 700, The University of Melbourne.
    11. Loujaina Abdelwahed, 2021. "The fiscal management of permanent and temporary foreign aid: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 685-716, May.
    12. Roberto Pasten & James P. Cover, 2010. "The Political Economy of Unsustainable Fiscal Deficits," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 47(136), pages 169-189.
    13. Maria Cornachione Kula, 2004. "U.S. States, the Medicaid Program, and Tax Smoothing," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(3), pages 490-511, January.
    14. Pastén, Roberto & Cover, James P., 2015. "Tax tilting and politics: Some theory and evidence for Latin America," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 208-218.
    15. Adler, Johan, 2003. "Has Sweden’s government budget policy been too discretionary? Evidence from a generalization of the tax smoothing hypothesis," Working Papers in Economics 89, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    16. Samuel Bonzu, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and Optimal Taxation in Sierra Leone: Testing for Tax Smoothing Hypothesis," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(2), pages 1-61, February.
    17. Cashin, Paul & Ul Haque, Nadeem & Olekalns, Nilss, 2003. "Tax smoothing, tax tilting and fiscal sustainability in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 47-67, January.
    18. Kiley, Michael T., 1998. "Predicting Tax Rate Changes: Insights from the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 153-167, January.
    19. Angyridis, Constantine, 2009. "Balanced budget vs. Tax smoothing in a small open economy: A welfare comparison," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 438-463, September.
    20. Boris I. Alekhin, 2020. "Tax Smoothing in Russia," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 2, pages 9-24, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:48:y:2014:i:3:p:1553-1572. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.