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Demographic Uncertainty and Welfare in a Life-Cycle Model Under Alternative Public Pension Systems

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  • Muhammad Rahman

    (Indiana University Bloomington)

Abstract

In this paper, I analyze consumption, aggregate savings, output and welfare implications of five different social security arrangements whenever there is demographic uncertainty. Following Bohn (2002), I analyze the effect of an uncertain population growth in an extended version of a modified Life-cycle model developed by Gertler (1999). Population growth dampens savings and output under all arrangements. Pay-as-you-go-Defined Benefit system appears to fare better than all other alternatives, falling short of the private annuity market with no pension system. But social security in general increases social welfare, with Fully Funded systems faring the best. Thus there appears to be a clear trade between growth and social welfare. The social security system also reduces the volatility of the economy.Length: 47 pages

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Rahman, 2008. "Demographic Uncertainty and Welfare in a Life-Cycle Model Under Alternative Public Pension Systems," CAEPR Working Papers 2008-024, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    • Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2008024
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    File URL: https://caepr.indiana.edu/RePEc/inu/caeprp/caepr2008-024.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Du, C. & Muysken, J. & Sleijpen, O.C.H.M., 2010. "Economy wide risk diversification in a three-pillar pension system," Research Memorandum 055, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic uncertainty; Social welfare; Life-cycle model; Annuity market; Pay-as-you-go; Fully funded; Defined benefit; Defined contribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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