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Increasing life expectancy and optimal retirement:does population aging necessarily undermine economic prosperity?

Author

Listed:
  • Klaus Prettner

    () (Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies)

  • David Canning

    () (Harvard School of Public Health)

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the e ects of changes in longevity and the pace of technological progress on interest rates, savings behaviour and optimal retirement decisions. In so doing we embed the dynamic optimization problem of choosing a life-cycle consumption path and the retirement age into a general equilibrium setting. Thereby we assume that technology evolves exogenously and the production side of the economy can be described by means of a neoclassical production function. Our results show that (i) the aggregate capital to consumption ratio increases and interest rates decrease in response to increases in longevity; (ii) the response of the optimal retirement age to increases in longevity is ambiguous. However, for reasonable parameter values the optimal retirement age increases in longevity; (iii) the aggregate capital to consumption ratio decreases and interest rates increase in response to faster technological progress; (iv) the response of the optimal retirement age to faster technological progress is ambiguous. However, for reasonable parameter values the optimal retirement age increases in the pace of technological improvements.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Prettner & David Canning, 2012. "Increasing life expectancy and optimal retirement:does population aging necessarily undermine economic prosperity?," PGDA Working Papers 9112, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  • Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:9112
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    File URL: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2012/PGDA_WP_91.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Kuhn, Michael & Wrzaczek, Stefan & Prskawetz, Alexia & Feichtinger, Gustav, 2015. "Optimal choice of health and retirement in a life-cycle model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PA), pages 186-212.
    4. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore, 2007. "A Theory of Retirement," NBER Working Papers 13630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2008. "Population Aging and Economic Growth," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 28027.
    6. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
    7. Gruber, Jonathan & Wise, David, 1998. "Social Security and Retirement: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 158-163, May.
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    12. Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2010. "Demographic change in models of endogenous economic growth. A survey," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 18(4), pages 593-608, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ben J. Heijdra & Laurie S. M. Reijnders, 2016. "Human Capital Accumulation and the Macroeconomy in an Ageing Society," De Economist, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 297-334, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    endogenous retirement; life-cycle savings; population aging; technological progress; economic prosperity;

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