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Demographic Uncertainty and Welfare in a Life-Cycle Model Under Alternative Public Pension Systems

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  • Muhammad Rahman

    () (Indiana University Bloomington)

Abstract

In this paper, I analyze consumption, aggregate savings,output and welfare implications of ?ve di¤erent social security arragements whenever there is demographic uncertanity. Following Bohn(2002), I analyze the e¤ect of an uncetain population growth in an extended version of a modi?ed Life-cycle model developed by Gertler(1999). Population growth dampens savings and output under all arrangements. Pay-as-you-go-De?ned Bene?t system appears to fare better than all other alternatives, falling short of the private annuity market with no pension system. But social security in general increases social welfare, with Fully Funded systems faring the best. Thus there appears to be a clear tradeo¤ bewteen growth and social welfare. The social security system also reduces the volatility of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Rahman, 2008. "Demographic Uncertainty and Welfare in a Life-Cycle Model Under Alternative Public Pension Systems," Caepr Working Papers 2008-024, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  • Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2008-024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roger E. A. Farmer, 1990. "RINCE Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 43-60.
    2. Richard H. Clarida, 1991. "Aggregate Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 851-867.
    3. Andrew B. Abel, 2003. "The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 551-578, March.
    4. Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2004. "Aging, Labor Markets, and Pension Reform in Austria," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 359-359, September.
    5. Philippe Weil, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42.
    6. Gali, Jordi, 1990. "Finite horizons, life-cycle savings, and time-series evidence on consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 433-452, December.
    7. Kevin E. Cahill & Michael D. Giandrea & Joseph F. Quinn, 2005. "Are Traditional Retirements a Thing of the Past? New Evidence on Retirement Patterns and Bridge Jobs," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 626, Boston College Department of Economics.
    8. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
    9. Kilponen, Juha & Ripatti, Antti, 2006. "Labour and product market competition in a small open economy – Simulation results using a DGE model of the Finnish economy," Research Discussion Papers 5/2006, Bank of Finland.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic uncertainty; Social welfare; Life-cycle model; Annuity market; Pay-as-you-go; Fully funded; De ned bene t; De ned contribution;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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