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Demographischer Wandel in Ostdeutschland: Fluch oder Segen für den Arbeitsmarkt?

  • Beate Grundig
  • Carsten Pohl
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    Anhand eines theoriebasierten Simulationsmodells werden die Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf den ostdeutschen Arbeitsmarkt bis zum Jahr 2020 untersucht. Demnach könnte die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen insgesamt von 6,7 auf 6,1 Mill. zurückgehen. Da das Arbeitsangebot schneller schrumpft als die Arbeitsnachfrage, zeigen die Simulationsergebnisse einen Rückgang der Arbeitslosigkeit. Der aufgezeigte Mangel an hoch qualifizierten Fachkräften ab dem Jahr 2013 könnte allerdings auch negative Beschäftigungseffekte für die Niedrig- und Mittelqualifizierten nach sich ziehen. Falls es gelingt, das Angebot an Hochqualifizierten zu erhöhen, würde dies dem gesamten ostdeutschen Arbeitsmarkt helfen.

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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Dresden_berichtet/zs-drber-2007/ifodb_2007_3_03_13.pdf
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    Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

    Volume (Year): 14 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 03 (06)
    Pages: 3-13

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    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:14:y:2007:i:03:p:3-13
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    1. Donghoon Lee & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2004. "Intersectoral Labor Mobility and the Growth of the Service Sector," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-036, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Franz, Wolfgang, 1997. "Flexibilität der qualifikatorischen Lohnstruktur und Lastverteilung der Arbeitslosigkeit: Eine ökonometrische Analyse für Westdeutschland," ZEW Discussion Papers 97-32, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    3. Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Eichler & Beate Grundig & Harald Lehmann & Carsten Pohl & Lutz Schneider & Helmut Seitz & Marcel Thum, 2007. "Die demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland : Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie," ifo Dresden Studien, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 41, June.
    4. Beate Henschel & Carsten Pohl & Marcel Thum, 2008. "Demographic Change and Regional Labour Markets: The Case of Eastern Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 2315, CESifo Group Munich.
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