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Demographischer Wandel in Ostdeutschland: Fluch oder Segen für den Arbeitsmarkt?

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  • Beate Henschel
  • Carsten Pohl

Abstract

Anhand eines theoriebasierten Simulationsmodells werden die Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf den ostdeutschen Arbeitsmarkt bis zum Jahr 2020 untersucht. Demnach könnte die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen insgesamt von 6,7 auf 6,1 Mill. zurückgehen. Da das Arbeitsangebot schneller schrumpft als die Arbeitsnachfrage, zeigen die Simulationsergebnisse einen Rückgang der Arbeitslosigkeit. Der aufgezeigte Mangel an hoch qualifizierten Fachkräften ab dem Jahr 2013 könnte allerdings auch negative Beschäftigungseffekte für die Niedrig- und Mittelqualifizierten nach sich ziehen. Falls es gelingt, das Angebot an Hochqualifizierten zu erhöhen, würde dies dem gesamten ostdeutschen Arbeitsmarkt helfen.

Suggested Citation

  • Beate Henschel & Carsten Pohl, 2007. "Demographischer Wandel in Ostdeutschland: Fluch oder Segen für den Arbeitsmarkt?," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(03), pages 3-13, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:14:y:2007:i:03:p:3-13
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/ifodb_2007_3_03_13.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Franz, Wolfgang, 1997. "Flexibilität der qualifikatorischen Lohnstruktur und Lastverteilung der Arbeitslosigkeit: Eine ökonometrische Analyse für Westdeutschland," ZEW Discussion Papers 97-32, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    2. Beate Henschel & Carsten Pohl & Marcel Thum, 2008. "Demographic Change and Regional Labour Markets: The Case of Eastern Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 2315, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Eichler & Beate Henschel & Harald Lehmann & Carsten Pohl & Lutz Schneider & Helmut Seitz & Marcel Thum, 2007. "Die demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland : Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 41, October.
    4. Donghoon Lee & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2006. "Intersectoral Labor Mobility and the Growth of the Service Sector," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 1-46, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ces:ifodre:v:15:y:2008:i:04:p:s.44-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dieter Bogai & Franziska Hirschenauer, 2008. "Die Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarktes in Ostdeutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages 44-54, 08.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographie; Arbeitsmarkt; Arbeitskräfte; Qualifikation; Neue Bundesländer; Deutschland;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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