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Der Einfluss der Alters- und Familienstrukturen auf die Ausgaben der Länder und Gemeinden

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  • Britta Baum
  • Helmut Seitz
  • Andrej Worobjew

Abstract

Das Papier untersucht die Effekte des demographischen Wandels auf die öffentlichen Ausgaben, wobei ein besonderer Blick auf die föderalen Zusammenhänge gerichtet wird. Unter Verwendung von Paneldaten über die Pro-Kopf-Ausgaben der westdeutschen Bundesländer in 15 Aufgabenbereichen wird untersucht, ob von demographischen Einflussvariablen nachweisliche Effekte auf die Ausgaben ausgehen. Ökonometrische Tests zeigen einen signifikanten Einfluss der Altersstrukturen in nahezu allen Aufgabenbereichen, wogegen die Familienstruktur nur in einigen Aufgabenbereichen Einfluss zu haben scheint. Zusätzlich werden Prognosen berechnet, die Auskunft darüber geben, wie sich der in der Zukunft absehbare demographische Wandel auf die Pro-Kopf-Ausgaben der Länder und Gemeinden auswirkt. Hierbei zeigen sich durchaus quantitativ bedeutsame Effekte, die zwischen der Länder- und Gemeindeebene teilweise deutlich differieren.

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  • Britta Baum & Helmut Seitz & Andrej Worobjew, 2002. "Der Einfluss der Alters- und Familienstrukturen auf die Ausgaben der Länder und Gemeinden," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(1), pages 147-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:71-10-11
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.71.1.147
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    3. Fenge, Robert & Peglow, François, 2018. "Decomposition of demographic effects on the german pension system," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 61-76.
    4. Seitz, Helmut, 2004. "Implikationen der demographischen Veränderungen für die öffentlichen Haushalte und Verwaltungen," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 08/04, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    5. Hagist, Christian & Vatter, Johannes, 2009. "Measuring fiscal sustainability on the municipal level: A German case study," FZG Discussion Papers 35, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    6. Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Eichler & Beate Henschel & Harald Lehmann & Carsten Pohl & Lutz Schneider & Helmut Seitz & Marcel Thum, 2007. "Die demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland : Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 41, July.
    7. Joachim Ragnitz & Helmut Seitz, 2010. "Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die Ausgabenstruktur künftiger Haushalte : Gutachten im Auftrag des Finanzministeriums des Landes Mecklenburg-Vorpommern," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 52, July.

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