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Der Einfluss der Alters- und Familienstrukturen auf die Ausgaben der Länder und Gemeinden

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  • Britta Baum
  • Helmut Seitz
  • Andrej Worobjew

Abstract

Das Papier untersucht die Effekte des demographischen Wandels auf die öffentlichen Ausgaben, wobei ein besonderer Blick auf die föderalen Zusammenhänge gerichtet wird. Unter Verwendung von Paneldaten über die Pro-Kopf-Ausgaben der westdeutschen Bundesländer in 15 Aufgabenbereichen wird untersucht, ob von demographischen Einflussvariablen nachweisliche Effekte auf die Ausgaben ausgehen. Ökonometrische Tests zeigen einen signifikanten Einfluss der Altersstrukturen in nahezu allen Aufgabenbereichen, wogegen die Familienstruktur nur in einigen Aufgabenbereichen Einfluss zu haben scheint. Zusätzlich werden Prognosen berechnet, die Auskunft darüber geben, wie sich der in der Zukunft absehbare demographische Wandel auf die Pro-Kopf-Ausgaben der Länder und Gemeinden auswirkt. Hierbei zeigen sich durchaus quantitativ bedeutsame Effekte, die zwischen der Länder- und Gemeindeebene teilweise deutlich differieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Britta Baum & Helmut Seitz & Andrej Worobjew, 2002. "Der Einfluss der Alters- und Familienstrukturen auf die Ausgaben der Länder und Gemeinden," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(1), pages 147-162.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:71-10-11
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    File URL: http://ejournals.duncker-humblot.de/doi/pdf/10.3790/vjh.71.1.147
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Niebuhr, Annekatrin & Stiller, Silvia, 2005. "Demographischer Wandel in Norddeutschland: Konsequenzen und Handlungsbedarf," HWWA Reports 250, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    2. Seitz, Helmut, 2004. "Implikationen der demographischen Veränderungen für die öffentlichen Haushalte und Verwaltungen," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 08/04, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    3. Hagist, Christian & Vatter, Johannes, 2009. "Measuring fiscal sustainability on the municipal level: A German case study," FZG Discussion Papers 35, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).

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