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Population Aging, Productivity, and Growth in Living Standards

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  • William Scarth

Abstract

Population aging creates both a problem (higher taxes on a small group of workers to finance higher public pension and health care costs) and automatic adjustments that help to address that problem. The prospect of longer retirement involves an increased incentive to invest in physical capital, and labour scarcity leads to higher pre-tax wages and an increased incentive to invest in human capital. Thus, productivity growth can be favourably affected by aging. The likely empirical magnitude of this beneficial effect is assessed in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • William Scarth, 2003. "Population Aging, Productivity, and Growth in Living Standards," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 380, McMaster University.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcm:qseprr:380
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    File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/qsep/p/qsep380.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    2. J. C. Herbert Emery & Ian Rongve, 1999. "Much Ado About Nothing? Demographic Bulges, The Productivity Puzzle, And Cpp Reform," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(1), pages 68-78, January.
    3. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "Population, Labour Force, and Long-term Economic Growth," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 25, McMaster University.
    4. Søren Nielsen, 1994. "Social security and foreign indebtedness in a small open economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 47-63, March.
    5. Michael B. Devereux & David R. F. Love, 1994. "The Effects of Factor Taxation in a Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(3), pages 509-536, August.
    6. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcelin Joanis & David Boisclair & Claude Montmarquette, 2004. "La santé au Québec : des options pour financer la croissance," CIRANO Project Reports 2004rp-04, CIRANO.
    2. Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Eichler & Beate Henschel & Harald Lehmann & Carsten Pohl & Lutz Schneider & Helmut Seitz & Marcel Thum, 2007. "Die demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland : Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 41, February.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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