Demographic Change and Federal Systems: Some Preliminary Results for Germany
The paper examines the effects of demographic change on federal, state and local government expenditures in Germany. Public spending is decomposed into almost 30 categories (functions) and simple estimates of age cost profiles are derived. Using population forecasts and assuming timeinvariant age cost profiles we estimate the effects of the ageing of the Germany society on the level and structure of expenditures at the three layers of governments. Our results show that subnational governments - state and local governments - can expect demographic savings whereas the federal government will live to see a worsening of its fiscal stance. Thus one should expect that significant vertical expenditure imbalances will arise that - if institutional settings are left unchanged - will ask for an adjustment of revenue distribution within the federation.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 01062 Dresden|
Phone: ++49 351 463 2196
Fax: ++49 351 463 7739
Web page: http://www.tu-dresden.de/wiwi/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Population Aging and its Macroeconomic Implications; A Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Papers 02/16, International Monetary Fund.
- James M. Poterba, 1996.
"Demographic Structure and the Political Economy of Public Education,"
NBER Working Papers
5677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James M. Poterba, 1997. "Demographic structure and the political economy of public education," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 48-66.
- Thomas Fester & Marcel Thum, 2003.
"Die Pensionslasten : eine Bedrohung der zukünftigen Handlungsfähigkeit der Länder,"
ifo Dresden berichtet,
Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(05), pages 36-45, 06.
- Thomas Fester & Marcel Thum, 2003. "Die Pensionslasten - Eine Bedrohung der zukünftigen Handlungsfähigkeit der Länder," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(23), pages 03-09, December.
- Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
- Willi Leibfritz & Deborah Roseveare & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1995. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: How Do They Affect Saving?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 156, OECD Publishing.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0705. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.