Demographic Change and Federal Systems: Some Preliminary Results for Germany
The paper examines the effects of demographic change on federal, state and local government expenditures in Germany. Public spending is decomposed into almost 30 categories (functions) and simple estimates of age cost profiles are derived. Using population forecasts and assuming timeinvariant age cost profiles we estimate the effects of the ageing of the Germany society on the level and structure of expenditures at the three layers of governments. Our results show that subnational governments - state and local governments - can expect demographic savings whereas the federal government will live to see a worsening of its fiscal stance. Thus one should expect that significant vertical expenditure imbalances will arise that - if institutional settings are left unchanged - will ask for an adjustment of revenue distribution within the federation.
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- Willi Leibfritz & Deborah Roseveare & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1995. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: How Do They Affect Saving?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 156, OECD Publishing.
- James M. Poterba, 1997.
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John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 48-66.
- James M. Poterba, 1996. "Demographic Structure and the Political Economy of Public Education," NBER Working Papers 5677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
- Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Population Aging and its Macroeconomic Implications; A Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Papers 02/16, International Monetary Fund.
- Thomas Fester & Marcel Thum, 2003.
"Die Pensionslasten - Eine Bedrohung der zukünftigen Handlungsfähigkeit der Länder,"
Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(23), pages 03-09, December.
- Thomas Fester & Marcel Thum, 2003. "Die Pensionslasten : eine Bedrohung der zukünftigen Handlungsfähigkeit der Länder," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(05), pages 36-45, 06.
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