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Demographic Change and Federal Systems: Some Preliminary Results for Germany

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  • Seitz, Helmut
  • Freigang, Dirk
  • Kempkes, Gerhard

Abstract

The paper examines the effects of demographic change on federal, state and local government expenditures in Germany. Public spending is decomposed into almost 30 categories (functions) and simple estimates of age cost profiles are derived. Using population forecasts and assuming timeinvariant age cost profiles we estimate the effects of the ageing of the Germany society on the level and structure of expenditures at the three layers of governments. Our results show that subnational governments - state and local governments - can expect demographic savings whereas the federal government will live to see a worsening of its fiscal stance. Thus one should expect that significant vertical expenditure imbalances will arise that - if institutional settings are left unchanged - will ask for an adjustment of revenue distribution within the federation.

Suggested Citation

  • Seitz, Helmut & Freigang, Dirk & Kempkes, Gerhard, 2005. "Demographic Change and Federal Systems: Some Preliminary Results for Germany," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/05, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0705
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Willi Leibfritz & Deborah Roseveare & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1995. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: How Do They Affect Saving?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 156, OECD Publishing.
    2. James M. Poterba, 1997. "Demographic structure and the political economy of public education," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 48-66.
    3. Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
    4. Thomas Fester & Marcel Thum, 2003. "Die Pensionslasten - Eine Bedrohung der zukünftigen Handlungsfähigkeit der Länder," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(23), pages 03-09, December.
    5. Mr. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Population Aging and its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2002/016, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Helmut Seitz & Dirk Freigang & Sören Högel & Gerhard Kempkes, 2007. "Die Auswirkungen der demographischen Veränderungen auf die Budgetstrukturen der öffentlichen Haushalte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(2), pages 147-164, March.
    2. Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Eichler & Beate Henschel & Harald Lehmann & Carsten Pohl & Lutz Schneider & Helmut Seitz & Marcel Thum, 2007. "Die demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland : Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 41, July.
    3. Niklas Potrafke, 2006. "Parties Matter in Allocating Expenditures: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 652, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Oberndorfer, Ulrich & Steiner, Viktor, 2006. "Intergenerational Conflict, Partisan Politics, and Public Higher Education Spending: Evidence from the German States," IZA Discussion Papers 2417, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Ulrich Oberndorfer & Viktor Steiner, 2006. "Generationen- oder Parteienkonflikt?: Eine empirische Analyse der deutschen Hochschulausgaben," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 603, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Federalism; Demographic Change; Vertical Fiscal Imbalances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
    • H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government

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