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Demografische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland: Tendenzen und Implikationen

  • Joachim Ragnitz

Since the end of GDR, population in the East German Laender has decreased by 2.1 million people or 13.7 percent. One reason for this decline is the ongoing net-migration from East Germany, especially in the younger-age cohorts, another one is a defi cit in births due to changes in attidudes and lower size of the younger generation. The consequences of demographic changes that are actually discussed in a pan-German context can even now be seen in East Germany in great detail. It can be expected that these developments will continue in the years to come. Shrinking and aging of the population is on the one hand side a problem for public services, on the other hand side a severe economic problem. Labor force will decrease in an even larger extent than population, and the aging of the labor force might lead to lower productivity growth. Both could bring about lower growth rates in GDP terms. As these processes cannot be stopped in the near future, reasonable strategies to cope with demographic change are necessary. Seit dem Zusammenbruch der DDR hat sich die Bevölkerungszahl in den ostdeutschen Flächenländern um 2,1 Millionen Personen vermindert; dies sind 13,7 Prozent der ursprünglichen Einwohnerzahl. Ausschlaggebend dafür waren nicht nur hohe Nettoabwanderungen insbesondere bei jüngeren Geburtsjahrgängen, sondern gleichzeitig auch ein gravierendes Geburtendefizit als veränderter Wertevorstellungen und geringer Besatzziffern der geburtenaktiven Kohorten. Die Folgen des demografischen Wandels, die derzeit für Deutschland insgesamt diskutiert werden, sind somit in den neuen Ländern schon heute deutlich spürbar. Zu erwarten ist überdies, dass sich die Bevölkerungsschrumpfung und -alterung auch künftig in ähnlicher Intensität fortsetzt. Die Verringerung der Bevölkerungszahlen bei gleichzeitiger beschleunigter Alterung hat nicht nur unmittelbare Auswirkungen auf die Möglichkeiten der öffentlichen Daseinsvorsorge, sondern auch Wirkungen auf die künftigen Wachstumsperspektiven. Zum einen sinkt die Zahl der erwerbsfähigen Bevölkerung, zum anderen kann die Alterung die Produktivitätsentwicklung negativ beeinflussen. Da sich diese Prozesse kaum mehr aufhalten lassen, bedarf es sinnvoller Strategien zur Anpassung an den demografischen Wandel.

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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

Volume (Year): 78 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 110-121

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:78-2-7
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