IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Demografische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland: Tendenzen und Implikationen

Listed author(s):
  • Joachim Ragnitz

Since the end of GDR, population in the East German Laender has decreased by 2.1 million people or 13.7 percent. One reason for this decline is the ongoing net-migration from East Germany, especially in the younger-age cohorts, another one is a defi cit in births due to changes in attidudes and lower size of the younger generation. The consequences of demographic changes that are actually discussed in a pan-German context can even now be seen in East Germany in great detail. It can be expected that these developments will continue in the years to come. Shrinking and aging of the population is on the one hand side a problem for public services, on the other hand side a severe economic problem. Labor force will decrease in an even larger extent than population, and the aging of the labor force might lead to lower productivity growth. Both could bring about lower growth rates in GDP terms. As these processes cannot be stopped in the near future, reasonable strategies to cope with demographic change are necessary. Seit dem Zusammenbruch der DDR hat sich die Bevölkerungszahl in den ostdeutschen Flächenländern um 2,1 Millionen Personen vermindert; dies sind 13,7 Prozent der ursprünglichen Einwohnerzahl. Ausschlaggebend dafür waren nicht nur hohe Nettoabwanderungen insbesondere bei jüngeren Geburtsjahrgängen, sondern gleichzeitig auch ein gravierendes Geburtendefizit als veränderter Wertevorstellungen und geringer Besatzziffern der geburtenaktiven Kohorten. Die Folgen des demografischen Wandels, die derzeit für Deutschland insgesamt diskutiert werden, sind somit in den neuen Ländern schon heute deutlich spürbar. Zu erwarten ist überdies, dass sich die Bevölkerungsschrumpfung und -alterung auch künftig in ähnlicher Intensität fortsetzt. Die Verringerung der Bevölkerungszahlen bei gleichzeitiger beschleunigter Alterung hat nicht nur unmittelbare Auswirkungen auf die Möglichkeiten der öffentlichen Daseinsvorsorge, sondern auch Wirkungen auf die künftigen Wachstumsperspektiven. Zum einen sinkt die Zahl der erwerbsfähigen Bevölkerung, zum anderen kann die Alterung die Produktivitätsentwicklung negativ beeinflussen. Da sich diese Prozesse kaum mehr aufhalten lassen, bedarf es sinnvoller Strategien zur Anpassung an den demografischen Wandel.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

Volume (Year): 78 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 110-121

in new window

Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:78-2-7
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin

Phone: xx49-30-89789-0
Fax: xx49-30-89789-200
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

in new window

  1. Lehmann, Harald, 2007. "Individualproduktivität und Alter: Empirische Befunde einer Arbeitseinkommensanalyse," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 13(5), pages 138-145.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:78-2-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.