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On macroeconomic values investigation using fuzzy linear regression analysis

Listed author(s):
  • Richard Pospíšil

    ()

    (Palacký University of Olomouc)

  • Miroslav Pokorný

    ()

    (Moravian College Olomouc)

  • Jarmila Koudelková

    ()

    (Mendel University in Brno)

Registered author(s):

    The theoretical background for abstract formalization of the vague phenomenon of complex systems is the fuzzy set theory. In the paper, vague data is defined as specialized fuzzy sets - fuzzy numbers and there is described a fuzzy linear regression model as a fuzzy function with fuzzy numbers as vague parameters. To identify the fuzzy coefficients of the model, the genetic algorithm is used. The linear approximation of the vague function together with its possibility area is analytically and graphically expressed. A suitable application is performed in the tasks of the time series fuzzy regression analysis. The time-trend and seasonal cycles including their possibility areas are calculated and expressed. The examples are presented from the economy field, namely the time-development of unemployment, agricultural production and construction respectively between 2009 and 2011 in the Czech Republic. The results are shown in the form of the fuzzy regression models of variables of time series. For the period 2009-2011, the analysis assumptions about seasonal behaviour of variables and the relationship between them were confirmed; in 2010, the system behaved fuzzier and the relationships between the variables were vaguer, that has a lot of causes, from the different elasticity of demand, through state interventions to globalization and transnational impacts., 11-22

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    File URL: http://cmss.univnt.ro/wp-content/uploads/vol/split/vol_V_issue_1/CMSS_vol_V_issue_1_art.002.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2017
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    Article provided by "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences in its journal Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS).

    Volume (Year): 5 (2017)
    Issue (Month): 1 (June)
    Pages: 11-22

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    Handle: RePEc:ntu:ntcmss:vol5-iss1-17-05
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    1. Todaro, Michael P, 1969. "A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 138-148, March.
    2. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 416-416.
    3. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    4. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Report No. 3: Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Hinks, Tim & Davies, Simon, 2015. "Intentions to return : evidence from Romanian migrants," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7166, The World Bank.
    6. Roel Jennissen, 2007. "Causality Chains in the International Migration Systems Approach," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(4), pages 411-436, August.
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