Intergenerational Occupational Mobility, Labor Migration and Sustained Demographic Dividends

Based on the 1% sample survey of the National Population Census (2015), this paper empirically analyzes the impact of intergenerational occupational mobility levels on labor migration in terms of push and pull factors. We found that increasing the degree of intergenerational occupational mobility has a significant “agglomeration effect” on registered and mobile labor: reducing the emigration willingness of household registered labor and increasing the immigration probability of labor from cities with a lower degree of intergenerational occupational mobility. Labor migration generally occurs from cities with lower intergenerational occupational mobility to cities with a higher degree of intergenerational occupational mobility. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the agglomeration effect of a city on native labor is insignificant in east, northwest and northeast China. Rural laborers, highly educated laborers and rural laborers with high education levels are more likely to move from their registered cities. The mechanism analysis finds that improving the city’s comprehensive economic incremental competitiveness will enhance the city’s agglomeration effect on native labor, while increasing the degree of educational returns will strengthen the city’s agglomeration effect on mobile labor from cities with a lower degree of intergenerational mobility. Moreover, after using IV-probit, IV-2SLS and heteroscedasticity-based IVs to deal with endogenous problems, the above conclusions are still robust. Our findings may contribute to realizing sustained demographic dividends through internal migration.