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Active Population Growth and Immigration Hypotheses in Western Europe

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  • Serge Feld

    (University of Liege)

Abstract

The paper examines, in respect of twelve Western European countries over a period of twenty years, the widely held view that any decline in their working population should be offset by greater reliance on immigrant labour. This research, based on demographic projections and forecasts regarding labour market participation rates by age and sex for each of the countries concerned, focuses on the two most likely scenarios. It appears that only Italy will be faced with a fall in its working population. All other western countries will either maintain the same level or, more generally, see their workforce grow substantially. Accordingly, we may safely assert that there is no risk of a shortage of workers between now and the year 2020, and that an increasing supply of labour will render reliance on a greater influx of immigrant workers unnecessary. The second part analyses changes in the structure of the demand for labour. We deal chiefly with the phenomenon of the concentration of foreign manpower in each sector, its flexibility and mobility in a context of unemployment, as well as the impact of new technologies and globalisation on the main determinants of international migration of labour.

Suggested Citation

  • Serge Feld, 2000. "Active Population Growth and Immigration Hypotheses in Western Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 3-39, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:16:y:2000:i:1:d:10.1023_a:1006331030823
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1006331030823
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alfredo Juan Grau Grau & Federico Ramírez López, 2017. "Determinants of Immigration in Europe. The Relevance of Life Expectancy and Environmental Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Richard Estes, 2004. "Development Challenges of the "New Europe"," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 123-166, November.
    3. Grau, Alfredo Juan Grau & López, Federico Ramírez, 2018. "Determinants of migratory flow in Europe: A fuzzy-set approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 243-250.
    4. Laura DIACONU (MAXIM), 2015. "Ageing Population: Comparative Analysis Among European Union States," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 7(1), pages 50-59, March.
    5. Tomáš Sobotka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 7: The rising importance of migrants for childbearing in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(9), pages 225-248.
    6. Francesca Modena & Fabio Sabatini, 2012. "I would if I could: precarious employment and childbearing intentions in Italy," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 77-97, March.
    7. Anqi Yu & Guankun Liu & Yuning Gao, 2022. "Intergenerational Occupational Mobility, Labor Migration and Sustained Demographic Dividends," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-21, March.
    8. Marcello Marini & Ndaona Chokani & Reza S. Abhari, 2019. "Agent-Based Model Analysis of Impact of Immigration on Switzerland’s Social Security," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 787-808, August.
    9. Jakub Bijak & Dorota Kupiszewska & Marek Kupiszewski & Katarzyna Saczuk & Anna Kicinger, 2007. "Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-052: impact of international migration on population ageing," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 1-31, March.
    10. Fernando Gil Alonso, 2009. "Can the rising pension burden in Europe be mitigated by immigration? Modelling the effects of selected demographic and socio-economic factors on ageing in the European Union, 2008-2050," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 7(1), pages 123-147.
    11. Marek Loužek, 2008. "Zachrání Evropu imigrace? [Will immigration save Europe?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(3), pages 362-379.
    12. Sarah Harper, 2013. "Population–Environment Interactions: European Migration, Population Composition and Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(4), pages 525-541, August.
    13. Laura DIACONU (MAXIM), 2015. "The Refugees And The Economic Growth In The Eu States: Challenges And Opportunities," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 7(4), pages 881-890, December.

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