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The Long Term Economic Impacts of Reducing Migration: the Case of the UK Migration Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Dr Miguel Sanchez-Martinez
  • Dr Katerina Lisenkova

Abstract

This paper uses an OLG-CGE model for the UK to illustrate the long-term effect of migration on the economy. We use the current Conservative Party migration target to reduce net migration “from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands” as an illustration. Achieving this target would require reducing recent net migration numbers by a factor of about 2. In presented simulations, we compare a baseline scenario, which incorporates the principal 2010-based ONS population projections, with a lower migration scenario, which assumes that net migration is reduced by around 50%. The results show that such a significant reduction in net migration has strong negative effects on the economy. The level of both GDP and GDP per person fall during the simulation period by 11.0% and 2.7% respectively. Moreover, this policy has a significant impact on public finances. To keep the government budget balanced, the labour income tax rate has to be increased by 2.2 percentage points in the lower migration scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr Miguel Sanchez-Martinez & Dr Katerina Lisenkova, 2013. "The Long Term Economic Impacts of Reducing Migration: the Case of the UK Migration Policy," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 420, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:420
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2012. "The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: Evidence for Germany and the UK," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 180-194.
    2. Ray Barrell & John Fitzgerald & Rebecca Riley, 2010. "EU Enlargement and Migration: Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 373-395, March.
    3. Ray Barrell & John Fitzgerald & Rebecca Riley, 2010. "EU Enlargement and Migration: Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 373-395, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Heike Delfmann & Sierdjan Koster, 2016. "The effect of new business creation on employment growth in regions facing population decline," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 33-54, January.
    2. Miguel Sanchez-Martinez & Philip Davis, 2014. "A review of the economic theories of poverty," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 435, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    3. Heike Delfmann & Sierdjan Koster, 2014. "New firm formation and its effect on employment growth in declining regions," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1133, European Regional Science Association.
    4. MONGELLI Ignazio & CISCAR MARTINEZ Juan Carlos, 2018. "Economic consequences of zero international migration in the EU: An assessment for Europe based on the Eurostat population projections," JRC Research Reports JRC109196, Joint Research Centre.
    5. Heike Delfmann & Sierdjan Koster, 2016. "The effect of new business creation on employment growth in regions facing population decline," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 33-54, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    UK; migration; OLG; population ageing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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