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Cyclical Dimensions of Labour Mobility after EU Enlargement

  • Alan Ahearne


    (Department of Economics-National University of Ireland, Bruegel-Brussels, Trinity College Dublin)

  • Herbert Brcker


    (Head of the Department for International Comparisons and European Integration, Institute for Employment Research, University of Bamberg)

  • Zsolt Darvas


    (Institute of Economics - Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Bruegel-Brussels, Corvinus University of Budapest)

  • Jakob von Weizs„cker


    (Bruegel, Brussels)

This paper explores the influence of the economic cycle on labour mobility within the EU, focusing on the likely impact of the present economic crisis. To do so, we use an econometrically calibrated simulation and a case study of Ireland. We find that, in the short run, the crisis is likely to lead to a somewhat lower stock of migrants from the new member states in the EU15 than would have been the case without the crisis on account of diminished job opportunities for migrants. By contrast, in the longer run the crisis might lead to a moderate increase in migration from some of the new member states compared to what would have been the case without the crisis. The latter is driven by the observation that the crisis may have undermined the economic growth model of some of the new member states, thereby slowing down their economic catching-up process.

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Paper provided by Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences in its series IEHAS Discussion Papers with number 0910.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:0910
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  1. Barry Eichengreen, 1991. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," NBER Working Papers 3579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hatton, Timothy J, 1995. "A Model of U.K. Emigration, 1870-1913," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 407-15, August.
  3. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2000. "The Optimal Migration Duration and Activity Choice after Re-migration," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 00-39, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  4. Zsolt Darvas & Gy�rgy Szap�ry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," European Economy - Economic Papers 304, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  5. Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005. "On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?," IZA Discussion Papers 1710, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Damm, Anna Piil & Rosholm, Michael, 2003. "Employment Effects of Dispersal Policies on Refugee Immigrants, Part I: Theory," IZA Discussion Papers 924, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Ray Barrell & John Fitzgerald & Rebecca Riley, 2010. "EU Enlargement and Migration: Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48, pages 373-395, 03.
  8. Alan Barrett & David Duffy, 2007. "Are Ireland's Immigrants Integrating into its Labour Market?," Papers WP199, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  9. repec:nsr:niesrd:292 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
  11. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650592, June.
  12. Alan Ahearne & Juan Delgado & Jakob von Weizsäcker, 2008. "A tail of two countries," Policy Briefs 6, Bruegel.
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