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Projections of potential flows to the enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern neighbors

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  • Michael Fertig
  • Martin Kahanec

Abstract

This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its Eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU’s 2004 enlargement. We consider two baseline policy scenarios, with and without accession of sending countries to the EU. Our results show that migration flows are driven by migration costs and economic conditions, but the largest effects accrue to policy variables. In terms of the predicted flows: (i) we can expect modest migration flows in the case of no liberalization of labor markets and only moderately increased migration flows under liberalization; (ii) after an initial increase following liberalization, migration flows will subside to a long run steady state; (iii) Ukraine will send the most migrants; and (iv) the largest inflows in absolute terms are predicted for Germany, Italy and Austria, whereas Ireland, Denmark, Finland and again Austria are the main receiving countries relative to their population. Copyright Fertig and Kahanec; licensee Springer. 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Fertig & Martin Kahanec, 2015. "Projections of potential flows to the enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern neighbors," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:izamig:v:4:y:2015:i:1:p:1-27:10.1186/s40176-015-0029-8
    DOI: 10.1186/s40176-015-0029-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Wispelaere, Frederic De & Berki, Gabriella & Balokovic, Snjezana, 2020. "Montenegro’s accession to the European Union: Possible consequences of the free movement of persons for the Montenegrin social security system," SEER Journal for Labour and Social Affairs in Eastern Europe, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 23(1), pages 39-58.
    2. Ritzen, Jo & Kahanec, Martin, 2017. "A Sustainable Immigration Policy for the EU," IZA Policy Papers 126, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    F22; C23; C53; Migration; Free movement of workers; European union; Eastern partnership; EU enlargement; Migration potential; Out-of-sample forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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