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Nested models and model uncertainty

  • Alexander Kriwoluzky
  • Christian A. Stoltenberg

Uncertainty about the appropriate choice among nested models is a central concern for optimal policy when policy prescriptions from those models differ. The standard procedure is to specify a prior over the parameter space ignoring the special status of some sub-models, e.g. those resulting from zero restrictions. This is especially problematic if a model's generalization could be either true progress or the latest fad found to fit the data. We propose a procedure that ensures that the specified set of sub-models is not discarded too easily and thus receives no weight in determining optimal policy. We find that optimal policy based on our procedure leads to substantial welfare gains compared to the standard practice.

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Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number ECO2009/37.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2009/37
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  1. Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2008. "Introducing Financial Frictions and Unemployment into a Small Open Economy Model," 2008 Meeting Papers 423, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "Monetary policy analysis with potentially misspecified models," Working Paper Series 0475, European Central Bank.
  3. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John C. Williams & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Working Papers 11523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Poirier, Dale J., 1998. "Revising Beliefs In Nonidentified Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(04), pages 483-509, August.
  6. Fabio Canova, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models by S. An and F. Schorfheide," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 187-192.
  7. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
  8. Malin Adolfson & Stefan Laséen & Jesper Lindé & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-Sized DSGE Model," NBER Working Papers 14092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  10. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Testing for Indeterminacy:An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," Economics Working Paper Archive 480, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Jun 2003.
  11. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
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