IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/revaec/v25y2012i3p223-241.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hayek, Keynes, and modern macroeconomics

Author

Listed:
  • Roger Koppl
  • William Luther

Abstract

The Great Recession seems to be creating a change in the trend of macroeconomic thinking. Prior to the financial crisis of 2008, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models dominated the macroeconomics literature without any apparent challengers on the horizon. Since then, however, we have seen an increasing interest in macroeconomic models that address the state of confidence (“animal spirits”), complexity, cognition, and radical uncertainty. Most of the renewed interest in animal spirits, complexity, cognition, and radical uncertainty has come from a more or less “Keynesian” perspective. We discuss the potential to emphasize these elements from a more “Hayekian” perspective and argue that Austrian approaches to macroeconomics along these lines are more likely to resonate with mainstream economists than in years past. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Koppl & William Luther, 2012. "Hayek, Keynes, and modern macroeconomics," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 223-241, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:revaec:v:25:y:2012:i:3:p:223-241
    DOI: 10.1007/s11138-011-0161-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11138-011-0161-5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11138-011-0161-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
    2. Smith,Vernon L., 2009. "Rationality in Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521133388.
    3. Ronald H. Coase, 2022. "The Market for Goods and the Market for Ideas," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 19(1), pages 166–175-1, March.
    4. John P A Ioannidis, 2005. "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(8), pages 1-1, August.
    5. Thomas McQuade & William Butos, 2005. "The Sensory Order and other Adaptive Classifying Systems," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 335-358, December.
    6. Mantel, Rolf R., 1974. "On the characterization of aggregate excess demand," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 348-353, March.
    7. N. G. Mankiw, 2009. "The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 5.
    8. Sheri M. Markose, 2005. "Computability and Evolutionary Complexity: Markets as Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(504), pages 159-192, June.
    9. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    10. Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: Some theory and empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 629-664, February.
    11. Frydman Roman & Goldberg Michael D., 2009. "Financial Markets and the State: Long Swings, Risk, and the Scope of Regulation," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-45, October.
    12. Thomas Mayer, 2009. "Honesty and Integrity in Economics," Working Papers 92, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    13. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2010. "Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 85-102, Fall.
    14. Thomas Mayer, 2009. "Honesty and Integrity in Economics," Working Papers 160, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    15. Roger Koppl, 2002. "Big Players and the Economic Theory of Expectations," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-62924-0, December.
    16. David Levy & Sandra Peart, 2006. "The fragility of a discipline when a model has monopoly status," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 125-136, June.
    17. Peter J. Boettke & William J. Luther, 2010. "The Ordinary Economics of an Extraordinary Crisis," Chapters, in: Steven Kates (ed.), Macroeconomic Theory and its Failings, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Virgil Storr, 2010. "Schütz on meaning and culture," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 147-163, June.
    19. William N. Butos & Roger G. Koppl, 1995. "The Varieties of Subjectivism: Keynes and Hayek on Expectations," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 9505001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 1995.
    20. David M. Levy & Sandra J. Peart, 2008. "Thinking About Analytical Egalitarianism," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 473-479, July.
    21. Koppl, Roger, 2010. "Some epistemological implications of economic complexity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 859-872, December.
    22. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    23. Camerer, Colin & Weber, Martin, 1992. "Recent Developments in Modeling Preferences: Uncertainty and Ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 325-370, October.
    24. Levy, David M., 2001. "How the Dismal Science Got its Name: Debating Racial Quackery," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 5-35, March.
    25. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2009. "Complexity and Financial Panics," NBER Working Papers 14997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. McCabe, Kevin & Houser, Daniel & Ryan, Lee & Smith, Vernon & Trouard, Ted, 2001. "A Functional Imaging Study of Cooperation in Two-Person reciprocal Exchange," MPRA Paper 5172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Cosmides, Leda & Tooby, John, 1994. "Better than Rational: Evolutionary Psychology and the Invisible Hand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 327-332, May.
    28. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "The conquest of US inflation: Learning and robustness to model uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 528-563, April.
    29. Wible James, 1998. "The Economics Of Science, Methodology And Epistemology As If Economics Really Matter," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-18, December.
    30. Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce Greenwald & Alberto Russo & Joseph Stiglitz, 2009. "Business fluctuations and bankruptcy avalanches in an evolving network economy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 4(2), pages 195-212, November.
    31. Vernon L. Smith, 1998. "The Two Faces of Adam Smith," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 2-19, July.
    32. Andrei Shleifer, 2009. "The Age of Milton Friedman," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 123-135, March.
    33. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-137, February.
    34. Lawrence H. White, 2005. "The Federal Reserve System's Influence on Research in Monetary Economics," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 2(2), pages 325-354, August.
    35. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    36. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
    37. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2006. "Business fluctuations in a credit-network economy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(1), pages 68-74.
    38. David Levy & Sandra Peart, 2012. "Tullock on motivated inquiry: expert-induced uncertainty disguised as risk," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 163-180, July.
    39. Debreu, Gerard, 1974. "Excess demand functions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 15-21, March.
    40. Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1973. "Do Walras' identity and continuity characterize the class of community excess demand functions?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 345-354, August.
    41. Schinckus, Christophe, 2009. "Economic uncertainty and econophysics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(20), pages 4415-4423.
    42. Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1972. "Market Excess Demand Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 549-563, May.
    43. Robert E. Hall, 2010. "Why Does the Economy Fall to Pieces after a Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 3-20, Fall.
    44. R. Koppl, 2006. "Austrian economics at the cutting edge," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 19(4), pages 231-241, December.
    45. Lewis, Alain A., 1992. "On turing degrees of Walrasian models and a general impossibility result in the theory of decision-making," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 24(2-3), pages 141-171, November.
    46. Wagner, Richard E, 1999. "Austrian Cycle Theory: Saving the Wheat While Discarding the Chaff," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 65-80.
    47. Takahashi, Taiki, 2009. "Tsallis’ non-extensive free energy as a subjective value of an uncertain reward," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(5), pages 715-719.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arne Heise, 2014. "The Future of Economics in a Lakatos–Bourdieu Framework," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 70-93, July.
    2. Alexander W. Salter & William J. Luther, 2016. "The Optimal Austrian Business Cycle Theory," Advances in Austrian Economics, in: Studies in Austrian Macroeconomics, volume 20, pages 45-60, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. John Davis & Theodore Koutsobinas, 2021. "Attribute substitution, counterfactual thinking, and heterodox economics," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 5(S3), pages 45-54, October.
    4. William J. Luther & Mark Cohen, 2016. "On the Empirical Relevance of the Mises–Hayek Theory of the Trade Cycle," Advances in Austrian Economics, in: Studies in Austrian Macroeconomics, volume 20, pages 79-103, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Petrik Runst, 2014. "Crisis and belief: confirmation bias and the behavioral political economy of recession," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 376-392, December.
    6. Bryan P. Cutsinger, 2021. "Forced savings and political malinvestment: an application of steve horwitz’s microfoundations and macroeconomics," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 311-322, June.
    7. William J. Luther, 2021. "Two paths forward for Austrian macroeconomics," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 289-297, June.
    8. William Luther & Mark Cohen, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(2), pages 153-169, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koppl, Roger, 2010. "Some epistemological implications of economic complexity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 859-872, December.
    2. Simone Landini & Mauro Gallegati & J. Barkley Rosser, 2020. "Consistency and incompleteness in general equilibrium theory," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 205-230, January.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    4. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    5. Gallegati, Mauro & Kirman, Alan, 2019. "20 years of WEHIA: A journey in search of a safer road," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 5-14.
    6. Crockett, Sean & Friedman, Daniel & Oprea, Ryan, 2017. "Aggregation and convergence in experimental general equilibrium economies constructed from naturally occurring preferences," Discussion Papers, Research Professorship Market Design: Theory and Pragmatics SP II 2017-501, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    7. Antonio Doria, Francisco, 2011. "J.B. Rosser Jr. , Handbook of Research on Complexity, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK--Northampton, MA, USA (2009) 436 + viii pp., index, ISBN 978 1 84542 089 5 (cased)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 196-204, April.
    8. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    9. Willem H. Buiter, 2003. "James Tobin: An Appreciation of his Contribution to Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(491), pages 585-631, November.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dcditnq6282sbu1u151qe5p7f is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is different ... and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-37, March.
    12. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2016. "Macroeconomic Policy in DGSE and Agent-Based Models Redux," Working Papers hal-03459348, HAL.
    13. Christian Schwarz & Uwe Stroinski, 2009. "Is there a Walrasian Equilibrium in Exchange Markets with Endowment Effect?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0082, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    14. repec:zbw:rwirep:0082 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Aneta Kargol-Wasiluk & Anna Wildowicz-Giegiel & Marian Zalesko, 2018. "The Evolution of the Economic Man. From Homo Oeconomicus to Homo Moralis," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 33-57.
    16. Berde, Éva & Petró, Katalin, 1995. "A különféle hasznosságfogalmak szerepe a közgazdaságtanban [The role of various notions of utility in economics]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 511-529.
    17. Schwarz, Christian & Stroinski, Uwe, 2009. "Is there a Walrasian Equilibrium in Exchange Markets with Endowment Effect?," Ruhr Economic Papers 82, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    18. Dilip Nachane, 2017. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Modelling :Theory And Practice," Working Papers id:11699, eSocialSciences.
    19. Peter J. Boettke & Alexander W. Salter & Daniel J. Smith, 2018. "Money as meta-rule: Buchanan’s constitutional economics as a foundation for monetary stability," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 176(3), pages 529-555, September.
    20. Charalambos Aliprantis & Kim Border & Owen Burkinshaw, 1996. "Market economies with many commodities," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 19(1), pages 113-185, March.
    21. Gerard Ballot & Antoine Mandel & Annick Vignes, 2015. "Agent-based modeling and economic theory: where do we stand?," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(2), pages 199-220, October.
    22. A. Fiori Maccioni, 2011. "The risk neutral valuation paradox," Working Paper CRENoS 201112, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Animal spirits; Cognition; Complexity; Great recession; Hayek; Keynes; Radical uncertainty; State of confidence; B53; E32; G12; E5; E6;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B53 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Austrian
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • A - General Economics and Teaching

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:revaec:v:25:y:2012:i:3:p:223-241. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.