IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/eme/aaeczz/s1529-213420160000020005.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

On the Empirical Relevance of the Mises–Hayek Theory of the Trade Cycle

In: Studies in Austrian Macroeconomics

Author

Listed:
  • William J. Luther
  • Mark Cohen

Abstract

Abstract Lester and Wolff (2013) find little empirical support for the Austrian business cycle theory. According to their analysis, an unexpected monetary shock does not alter the structure of production in a way consistent with the Austrian view. Rather than increasing production in early and late stages relative to middle stages, they find the opposite – a positive monetary shock typically decreases production in early and late stages relative to middle stages. We argue that the measures of production and prices employed by Lester and Wolff (2013) are constructed in such a way that makes them inappropriate for assessing the empirical relevance of the Austrian business cycle theory’s unique features. After describing how these measures are constructed and why using ratios of stages is problematic, we use a structural vector autoregression to consider the effects of a monetary shock on each stage of the production process. We show that, with a clearer understanding of what is actually being measured by the stage of process data, the results are consistent with (but not exclusive to) the Austrian view.

Suggested Citation

  • William J. Luther & Mark Cohen, 2016. "On the Empirical Relevance of the Mises–Hayek Theory of the Trade Cycle," Advances in Austrian Economics,in: Studies in Austrian Macroeconomics, volume 20, pages 79-103 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:aaeczz:s1529-213420160000020005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/10.1108/S1529-213420160000020005?utm_campaign=RePEc&WT.mc_id=RePEc
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicolas Cachanosky, 2015. "Expectation in Austrian business cycle theory: Market share matters," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 28(2), pages 151-165, June.
    2. Robert Lester & Jonathan Wolff, 2013. "The empirical relevance of the Mises-Hayek theory of the trade cycle," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 433-461, December.
    3. Nicolas Cachanosky, 2014. "The Mises-Hayek business cycle theory, fiat currencies and open economies," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 281-299, September.
    4. Roger Koppl & William Luther, 2012. "Hayek, Keynes, and modern macroeconomics," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 223-241, September.
    5. Anthony Carilli & Gregory Dempster, 2008. "Is the Austrian business cycle theory still relevant?," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 21(4), pages 271-281, December.
    6. Boettke, Peter J. & Coyne, Christopher J. & Leeson, Peter T., 2013. "Comparative historical political economy," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 285-301, September.
    7. Francis Bismans & Christelle Mougeot, 2009. "Austrian business cycle theory: Empirical evidence," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 241-257, September.
    8. N. Cachanosky & P. Lewin, 2014. "Roundaboutness is Not a Mysterious Concept: A Financial Application to Capital Theory," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 648-665, October.
    9. Selgin, George & Beckworth, David & Bahadir, Berrak, 2015. "The productivity gap: Monetary policy, the subprime boom, and the post-2001 productivity surge," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 189-207.
    10. William Luther & Mark Cohen, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(2), pages 153-169, June.
    11. Young, Andrew T., 2005. "Reallocating labor to initiate changes in capital structures: Hayek revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 275-282, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:jpe:journl:1475 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:pal:easeco:v:45:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1057_s41302-018-00127-y is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Austrian; business cycle; macroeconomic fluctuation; stage of process; structure of production; B53; E20; E22; E23; E32; E40;

    JEL classification:

    • B53 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Austrian
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:aaeczz:s1529-213420160000020005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Charlotte Maiorana). General contact details of provider: http://www.emeraldinsight.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.