IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v37y2015i2p189-207.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The productivity gap: Monetary policy, the subprime boom, and the post-2001 productivity surge

Author

Listed:
  • Selgin, George
  • Beckworth, David
  • Bahadir, Berrak

Abstract

It is widely believed that, in the wake of the dot.com crash, the Fed kept the federal funds target rate too low for too long, inadvertently contributing to the subprime boom. We attribute this and other Fed departures from a “neutral” policy stance to the Fed's failure to respond appropriately to exceptional rates of total factor productivity growth. We then show how the Fed, by adhering to a nominal GDP growth rate target, might have succeeded in maintaining such a neutral stance.

Suggested Citation

  • Selgin, George & Beckworth, David & Bahadir, Berrak, 2015. "The productivity gap: Monetary policy, the subprime boom, and the post-2001 productivity surge," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 189-207.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:37:y:2015:i:2:p:189-207
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2015.02.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893815000277
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
    2. Lombardi, Marco J. & Sgherri, Silvia, 2007. "(Un)naturally low? Sequential Monte Carlo tracking of the US natural interest rate," Working Paper Series 794, European Central Bank.
    3. Gordon, Robert J, 2010. "Revisiting U. S. productivity Growth over the Past Century with a View of the Future," CEPR Discussion Papers 7991, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2008. "Explaining a productive decade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 633-673.
    5. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    6. Rudiger Ahrend & Boris Cournède & Robert W. R. Price, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Market Excesses and Financial Turmoil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 597, OECD Publishing.
    7. Whelan, Karl T., 2009. "Technology shocks and hours worked: Checking for robust conclusions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 231-239, June.
    8. anonymous, 2008. "Monetary policy report to the Congress," Web Site 34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. anonymous, 2008. "Monetary policy report to the Congress," Web Site 16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. ""Specification and Analysis of a Monetary Policy Rule for Japan" Reply to Comments by Kunio Okina," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 11(2), pages 55-57, December.
    11. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    12. Robert J. Gordon, 2010. "Revisiting U. S. Productivity Growth over the Past Century with a View of the Future," NBER Working Papers 15834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Justin Weidner & John C. Williams, 2009. "How big is the output gap?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun12.
    14. Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Specification and Analysis of a Monetary Policy Rule for Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 11(2), pages 1-45, December.
    15. Sims, Eric R., 2012. "Taylor rules and technology shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 92-95.
    16. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    17. Hendrickson, Joshua R., 2012. "An overhaul of Federal Reserve doctrine: Nominal income and the Great Moderation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 304-317.
    18. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-288.
    19. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    20. John C. Williams, 2003. "The natural rate of interest," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct31.
    21. Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2007. "Two Reasons Why Money and Credit May be Useful in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John B. Taylor, 2016. "Rethinking the International Monetary System," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 239-250, Spring/Su.
    2. Joshua R Hendrickson, 2015. "Should the government increase investment in infrastructure improvements when interest rates decline?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1687-1692.
    3. Cendejas Bueno, José Luis & Castañeda, Juan Enrique & Muñoz, Félix, 2015. "Business cycles and monetary regimes in the U.S. (1960 – 2014): A plea for monetary stability," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2015/05, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    4. repec:kap:revaec:v:30:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11138-016-0340-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Antonio Ribba, 2017. "What Drives US Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 765-777.
    6. repec:bla:intfin:v:20:y:2017:i:2:p:114-134 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. George Selgin, 2014. "Operation Twist-the-Truth: How the Federal Reserve Misrepresents Its History and Performance," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 34(2), pages 229-263, Spring/Su.
    8. Cachanosky, Nicolás & Lewin, Peter, 2016. "An empirical application of the EVA® framework to business cycles," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 60-67.
    9. repec:eee:jmacro:v:54:y:2017:i:pa:p:7-11 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity; Neutral interest rate; Output gap; Business cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:37:y:2015:i:2:p:189-207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.