Evaluating McCallum's Rule When Monetary Policy Matters
This paper provides new evidence on the usefulness of McCallum's proposed rule for monetary policy. The rule targets nominal GDP using the monetary base as the instrument. We analyze the rule using three very different economic models to see if the rule works well in different environments. Our results suggest that while the rule leads to lower inflation than there has been over the last 30 years, instability problems suggest that the rule should be modified to feed back on the growth rate of nominal GDP rather than the level.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
- Gregory D. Hess & David H. Small & Flint Brayton, 1993. "Nominal income targeting with the monetary base as instrument: an evaluation of McCallum's rule," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jordi Galí, 1992. "How Well Does The IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U. S. Data?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-738.
- Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 1998.
"Evaluating McCallum's Rule When Monetary Policy Matters,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 451-485, July.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1996. "Evaluating McCallum's rule when monetary policy matters," Working Papers 96-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1987. "The case for rules in the conduct of monetary policy: a concrete example," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sep, pages 10-18.
- Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. ""Specification and Analysis of a Monetary Policy Rule for Japan" Reply to Comments by Kunio Okina," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 11(2), pages 55-57, December.
- John P. Judd & Brian Motley, 1993. "Using a nominal GDP rule to guide discretionary monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-11.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1990. "Could a monetary base rule have prevented the great depression?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 3-26, August.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1989. "Could A Monetary Base Rule Have Prevented the Great Depression?," NBER Working Papers 3162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John P. Judd & Brian Motley, 1991. "Nominal feedback rules for monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 3-17.
- John P. Judd & Brian Motley, 1992. "Controlling inflation with an interest rate instrument," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-22.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Specification and Analysis of a Monetary Policy Rule for Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 11(2), pages 1-45, December.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Specification and Analysis of a Monetary Policy Rule for Japan," NBER Working Papers 4449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fair, Ray C, 1970. "The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 507-516, May.
- Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-1286, September.
- Herbert E. Taylor, 1992. "PSTAR+: a small macro model for policymakers," Working Papers 92-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Robert D. Laurent, 1988. "An interest rate-based indicator of monetary policy," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jan, pages 3-14.
- Benjamin M. Friedman, 1977. "The Inefficiency of Short-Run Monetary Targets for Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(2), pages 293-346. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)