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Model Uncertainty and the Effect of Shall-Issue Right-to-Carry Laws on Crime

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  • Steven N. Durlauf
  • Salvador Navarro
  • David A. Rivers

Abstract

This paper explores the role of model uncertainty in explaining the different findings in the literature regarding the effect of shall-issue right-to-carry concealed weapons laws on crime. In particular, we systematically examine how different modeling assumptions affect the results. We find little support for some widely used assumptions in the literature (e.g., population weights), but find that allowing for the effect of the law to be heterogeneous across both counties and over time is important for explaining the observed patterns of crime. In terms of model uncertainty, we find that there is substantial variation in the estimated effects for each model across all dimensions of the model space. This suggests that one should be cautious in using the results from any particular model to inform policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven N. Durlauf & Salvador Navarro & David A. Rivers, 2015. "Model Uncertainty and the Effect of Shall-Issue Right-to-Carry Laws on Crime," NBER Working Papers 21566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21566
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Deiana, C, 2016. "Local Labour Market Effects of Unemployment on Crime Induced by Trade Shocks," Economics Discussion Papers 16529, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
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    4. Petros G. Sekeris & Tanguy van Ypersele, 2020. "An Economic Analysis of Violent Crime," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(6), pages 975-999.
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    6. Lehrer, Steven & Xie, Tian & Zhang, Xinyu, 2021. "Social media sentiment, model uncertainty, and volatility forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    7. Tannenbaum, Daniel I., 2020. "Does the disclosure of gun ownership affect crime? Evidence from New York," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).

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    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • K0 - Law and Economics - - General

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