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Bayesian Modelling of Catch in a Northwest Atlantic Fishery

  • Carmen Fernandez

    (University of Saint Andrews)

  • Eduardo Ley

    (IMF Institute)

  • Mark Steel

    (University of Kent at Canterbury)

We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a number of ship characteristics (such as the size of the ship, the fishing technique used, the mesh size of the nets, etc.), are obvious candidates, but one can also consider the season or the actual location of the catch. Our database leads to 28 possible regressors (arising from six continuous variables and four categorical variables, whose 22 levels are treated separately), resulting in a set of 177 million possible linear regression models for the log of catch. Zero observations are modelled separately through a probit model. Inference is based on Bayesian model averaging, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Particular attention is paid to prediction of catch for single and aggregated ships.

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File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/em/papers/0110/0110003.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0110003.

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Date of creation: 06 Oct 2001
Date of revision: 18 Nov 2001
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0110003
Note: Type of Document - Tex; prepared on MacOS, TeXtures; to print on any printer; figures: included. Revised for JRSS-C- (Applied Statistics). Data and f77 code available from:
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  1. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
  2. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 0110002, EconWPA.
  3. Min, Chung-ki & Zellner, Arnold, 1993. "Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods for combining models and forecasts with applications to forecasting international growth rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 89-118, March.
  4. Eva Ferreira & Fernando Tusell, 1996. "Un modelo aditivo semiparamétrico para estimación de capturas: el caso de las pesquerías de Terranova," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 20(1), pages 143-157, January.
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