Model Uncertainty in Characterizing Recreation Demand
A Bayesian variable selection procedure is used to control for uncertainty in the specification of a recreational demand model. Specifically, we propose a model that draws on the Bayesian paradigm to integrate the variable selection process into model estimation and to reflect the accompanying uncertainty about which is the best specification in subsequent counterfactual predictions. The advantage of this procedure over previous non-Bayesian approaches is that it overcomes the problem of pre-testing in specification searches. In our application, evaluating demand for recreational lake usage in Iowa, we find clear evidence that site attributes, such as lakes size, handicap facilities and wake restrictions, do impact lake usage. There is also evidence that water quality matters in household recreation choices. Indeed, contrary to Abidoye et al. (Am J Agricult Econ, 2012 ), in which only a single functional form is considered, we find clear evidence that water quality matters, with posterior probability of less that 10 % associated with a model without any water quality variables. This suggests that the flexibility that the Bayesian variable selection model affords in capturing the linkage between recreation demand and site characteristics can be important. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012
Volume (Year): 53 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
Postal:c/o EAERE Secretariat - Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei - Isola di San Giorgio Maggiore 8, I-30124 Venice, Italy
Web page: http://www.eaere.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/environmental/journal/10640/PS2|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carmen Fernández & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2002.
"Bayesian modelling of catch in a north-west Atlantic fishery,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C,
Royal Statistical Society, vol. 51(3), pages 257-280.
- Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 2001. "Bayesian Modelling of Catch in a Northwest Atlantic Fishery," Econometrics 0110003, EconWPA, revised 18 Nov 2001.
- Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F J Steel, 2001. "Bayesian modelling of catch in a Northwest Atlantic Fishery," ESE Discussion Papers 67, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Murdock, Jennifer, 2006. "Handling unobserved site characteristics in random utility models of recreation demand," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 1-25, January.
- Egan, Kevin J. & Herriges, Joseph A. & Kling, Catherine L. & Downing, John A., 2004.
"Valuing Water Quality As a Functionof Water Quality Measures,"
Staff General Research Papers Archive
12210, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- John A. Downing, 2009. "Valuing Water Quality as a Function of Water Quality Measures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 106-123.
- Edward E. Leamer, 1982.
"Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
239, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Abidoye, Babatunde & Herriges, Joseph A. & Tobias, Justin, 2010.
"Controlling for Observed and Unobserved Site Characteristics in Rum Models of Recreation Demand,"
Staff General Research Papers Archive
31559, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Babatunde O. Abidoye & Joseph A. Herriges & Justin L. Tobias, 2012. "Controlling for Observed and Unobserved Site Characteristics in RUM Models of Recreation Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1070-1093.
- Herriges, Joseph A. & Phaneuf, Daniel J., 2002. "Inducing Patterns Correlation and Substitution in Repeated Logit Model of Recreation Demand," Staff General Research Papers Archive 5035, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Dale J. Poirier, 1995. "Intermediate Statistics and Econometrics: A Comparative Approach," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161494, December.
- Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2004. "Measuring the health effects of air pollution: to what extent can we really say that people are dying from bad air?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 30-54, January.
- David Layton & S. Lee, 2006. "Embracing Model Uncertainty: Strategies for Response Pooling and Model Averaging," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 34(1), pages 51-85, 05.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:53:y:2012:i:2:p:251-277. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.