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Experience, Expectations and Hindsight: Evidence of a Cognitive Wedge in Stated Preference Retrospectives

  • Bennett, Michael

    (U of Wisconsin)

  • Provencher, Bill
  • Bishop, Richard
Registered author(s):

    This paper combines fishing trip decisions - made before observing trip outcomes - with responses to set of double-bounded dichotomous choice CV questions regarding the outcome of the trip, to explore cognitive elements of choice and their implications for decision modeling and welfare analysis. Extending the approach taken by McConnell et al. (1999), wherein the unobserved component of random utility is linked between the trip decision and the retrospective trip evaluation, we decompose the unobserved component into linked and independent elements, and make the linked component a function of cognitive factors hypothesized as affecting differences between the RP and SP responses. Results suggest that a significant "wedge" exists between the closely related trip decision and its retrospective valuation, and that this wedge is not fully explained by factors such as experience, recall, and unobserved time costs.

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    File URL: http://www.aae.wisc.edu/pubs/sps/pdf/stpap468.pdf
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    Paper provided by University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics in its series Staff Paper Series with number 468.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:ecl:wisagr:468
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    Web page: http://www.aae.wisc.edu/pubs/sps/
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    1. Timothy C. Haab & Ju-Chin Huang & John C. Whitehead, . "Are Hypothetical Referenda Incentive Compatible? A Comment," Working Papers 9708, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
    2. Rabin, Matthew, 1997. "Psychology and Economics," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8jd5z5j2, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    3. M. K. Haener & P. C. Boxall & W. L. Adamowicz, 2001. "Modeling Recreation Site Choice: Do Hypothetical Choices Reflect Actual Behavior?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 629-642.
    4. Cameron, Trudy Ann & Poe, Gregory L. & Ethier, Robert G. & Schulze, William D., 2002. "Alternative Non-market Value-Elicitation Methods: Are the Underlying Preferences the Same?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 391-425, November.
    5. Herriges, Joseph A. & Kling, Catherine L. & Phaneuf, Daniel J., 1999. "Corner Solution Models of Recreation Demand: A Comparison of Competing Frameworks," Staff General Research Papers 1513, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Swait, Joffre & Bernardino, Adriana, 2000. "Distinguishing taste variation from error structure in discrete choice data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-15, January.
    7. Weninger, Quinn & Herriges, Joseph A. & Kling, Catherine L. & McConnell, Kenneth & Strand, Ivar, 1999. "Joint Estimation of Contingent Valuation and Truncated Recreational Demands," Staff General Research Papers 5349, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Trudy Ann Cameron, 1992. "Combining Contingent Valuation and Travel Cost Data for the Valuation of Nonmarket Goods," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 68(3), pages 302-317.
    9. Adamowicz, Wiktor & Swait, Joffre & Boxall, Peter & Louviere, Jordan & Williams, Michael, 1997. "Perceptions versus Objective Measures of Environmental Quality in Combined Revealed and Stated Preference Models of Environmental Valuation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 65-84, January.
    10. Provencher, Bill & Bishop, Richard C., 1997. "An Estimable Dynamic Model of Recreation Behavior with an Application to Great Lakes Angling," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 107-127, June.
    11. Bill Provencher & Kenneth A. Baerenklau & Richard C. Bishop, 2002. "A Finite Mixture Logit Model of Recreational Angling with Serially Correlated Random Utility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1066-1075.
    12. Hensher, David & Louviere, Jordan & Swait, Joffre, 1998. "Combining sources of preference data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 197-221, November.
    13. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
    14. Hanemann, W. Michael, 1983. "Marginal welfare measures for discrete choice models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 129-136.
    15. Adamowicz W. & Louviere J. & Williams M., 1994. "Combining Revealed and Stated Preference Methods for Valuing Environmental Amenities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 271-292, May.
    16. Niklitschek+, Mario & Leon+, Javier, 1996. "Combining Intended Demand and Yes/No Responses in the Estimation of Contingent Valuation Models," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 387-402, November.
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