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Monetary Policy Under Time-Varying Uncertainty Aversion

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  • Fidel Gonzalez
  • Arnulfo Rodriguez

Abstract

In this paper we develop a framework to analyze the optimal policy of an inflation-targeting monetary authority that is not fully confident about its model and the degree of mistrust changes over time as the structure of the economy changes. These changes can include structural breaks as well as price, output or real exchange shocks. We use robust control to denote the degree of uncertainty aversion of the policy maker and a Markov chain to capture the time-varying nature of the uncertainty aversion. We find that in general a more aggressive interest rate policy is the optimal response to: (i) more uncertainty aversion and (ii) higher likelihood that the uncertainty aversion may appear in the future. Moreover, we find that the policy maker’s welfare decreases when there is an increase in uncertainty aversion. However, the transition probabilities in the Markov-chain have ambiguous effects on the policy maker expected losses. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Fidel Gonzalez & Arnulfo Rodriguez, 2013. "Monetary Policy Under Time-Varying Uncertainty Aversion," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 125-150, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:41:y:2013:i:1:p:125-150
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-011-9303-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Inflation zone targeting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1387, June.
    2. Amano, Robert, 2007. "Inflation persistence and monetary policy: A simple result," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 26-31, January.
    3. Arnulfo Rodriguez & Fidel Gonzalez, 2004. "Robust Control: A Note on the Response of the Control to Changes in the," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 114, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy in a regime-switching economy: The response to abrupt shifts in exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1527-1567.
    5. Walsh, Carl E., 2005. "Endogenous objectives and the evaluation of targeting rules for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 889-911, July.
    6. Soderstrom, Ulf, 2002. " Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(1), pages 125-145.
    7. Fidel Gonzalez & Arnulfo Rodriguez, 2004. "Robust Control: A Note on the Response of the Control to Changes in the “Free” Parameter Conditional on the Character of Nature," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 223-238, March.
    8. Liu, Jun & Pan, Jun & Wang, Tan, 2002. "An Equilibrium Model of Rare Event Premia," Working papers 4370-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    9. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    10. Ignazio Angeloni & Günter Coenen & Frank Smets, 2003. "Persistence, The Transmission Mechanism And Robust Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 527-549, November.
    11. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Coenen, Gunter, 2007. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 111-140, January.
    13. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2007. "Introduction to Robustness," Introductory Chapters, in: Robustness, Princeton University Press.
    14. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Meixing Dai & Claire Mainguy & Jamel Saadaoui & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Isabelle Terraz & Jamel Trabelsi, 2020. "Towards a more resilient European Union after the COVID-19 crisis," Working Papers hal-03008144, HAL.
    2. Meixing Dai, 2020. "La réponse de la BCE face à la pandémie de Covid-19," Bulletin de l'Observatoire des politiques économiques en Europe, Observatoire des Politiques Économiques en Europe (OPEE), vol. 42(1), pages 5-14, July.
    3. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2018. "The limits to robust monetary policy in a small open economy with learning agents," Working Papers of BETA 2018-45, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    4. André Marine Charlotte & Dai Meixing, 2018. "Learning, robust monetary policy and the merit of precaution," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-20, June.
    5. Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Meixing Dai & Claire Mainguy & Jamel Saadaoui & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Isabelle Terraz & Jamel Trabelsi, 2021. "Towards a more resilient European Union after the COVID-19 crisis," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(2), pages 321-348, June.
    6. André Marine Charlotte & Medina Espidio Sebastián, 2022. "Optimal Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2022-17, Banco de México.
    7. Fidel Gonzalez, 2018. "Pollution Control with Time-Varying Model Mistrust of the Stock Dynamics," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 541-569, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model uncertainty; Robustness; Markov regime-switching; Monetary policy; C61; E61;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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