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Stock prices and monetary policy: Re-examining the issue in a New Keynesian model with endogenous investment

  • Grossi, Michele
  • Tamborini, Roberto

In this paper the authors present a New Keynesian quantitative model with endogenous investment and stock-market sector that may shed further light on two unsettled issues: whether central banks should include some financial indicator in their policy rules, and which indicator may be expected to generate better stabilization performance. For comparative purposes the authors replicate the policy framework and assessment strategy of the well-known no-inclusion model of BernankeGertler (Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility, 1999, and Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices? 2001). The performance of five policy rules is assessed. Two are traditional Taylor rules (i.e. with no financial indicators) that differ in the relative weight on the output and inflation gaps. Three are financial Taylor rules, that is, augmented with one financial indicator: the deviation from trend of stock prices, of Tobin's q (the rate of change stock prices relative to capital stock) and of investment. The authors show results that are at variance with BernankeGertler. First, because among the traditional rules the best performing one is output aggressive instead of inflation aggressive. Second, because the financial rule with Tobin's q outperforms the traditional inflation-aggressive one under all dimensions and cases. However, the authors cannot draw a univocal conclusion as regards the comparison between the financial rule with Tobin's q and the traditional but output aggressive rule.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2012-14
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File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/57822/1/715348485.pdf
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Article provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its journal Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal.

Volume (Year): 6 (2012)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 1-47

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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201214
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  1. Robert S. Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 1993. "Bubbles, fundamentals, and investment: a multiple equation testing strategy," Research Working Paper 93-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  2. Dupor, Bill, 2005. "Stabilizing non-fundamental asset price movements under discretion and limited information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 727-747, May.
  3. Charles Bean, 2003. "Asset Prices, Financial Imbalances and Monetary Policy: Are Inflation Targets Enough?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia.
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  12. Galeotti, Marzio & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1990. "Stock Market Volatility And Investment: Do Only Fundamental Matter?," Working Papers 90-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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  16. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  18. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1999. "Bubbles, Crises, and Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 9-18, Autumn.
  19. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "Monetary policy and asset price bubbles: calibrating the monetary policy trade-offs," BIS Working Papers 155, Bank for International Settlements.
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