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Productivity and equity market fundamentals: 80 years of evidence for 11 OECD countries

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  • Davis, E. Philip
  • Madsen, Jakob B.

Abstract

The share market boom in the 1990s is often linked to the acceleration in labour and total factor productivities over the same period. This paper explores the argument that labour and total factor productivities are inaccurate measures of firm's earnings, which underlie equity valuations, and that capital productivity is a better measure of earnings. Using 80 years of data for 11 OECD countries, it is shown empirically that the link of capital productivity to share returns is indeed stronger than that of labour productivity and TFP.

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  • Davis, E. Philip & Madsen, Jakob B., 2008. "Productivity and equity market fundamentals: 80 years of evidence for 11 OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1261-1283, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:27:y:2008:i:8:p:1261-1283
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    3. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Wu, Junjie & Howes, Cameron & Ripley, Helen, 2022. "Asymmetric nexus between wages and productivity in the context of the global financial crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 164-175.
    4. Jakob B. Madsen, 2009. "The Macroeconomics Of Stock Prices In The Medium Term And In The Long Run," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(2), pages 127-152, March.
    5. Bahram Adrangi & Juan Nicolás D’Amico, 2023. "Equity Returns and the Output Shocks in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Framework," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-14, April.

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