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Equity Prices, Productivity Growth, and the 'New Economy'

Author

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  • Jakob B. Madsen

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • E. Philip Davis

    (Brunel University)

Abstract

The sharp increase in equity prices over the 1990s was widely attributed to permanently higher productivity growth derived from the New Economy. This paper establishes a rational expectations model of technology innovations and equity prices, which shows that under plausible assumptions, productivity advances can only have temporary effects on the fundamentals of equity prices. Using historical data on productivity of R&D capital, patent capital and fixed capital for 11 OECD countries, empirical evidence give strong support for the model by suggesting that technological innovations indeed have only temporary effects on equity returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob B. Madsen & E. Philip Davis, 2004. "Equity Prices, Productivity Growth, and the 'New Economy'," EPRU Working Paper Series 04-05, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:04-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "Average Debt and Equity Returns: Puzzling?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 392-397, May.
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    13. Bipasa Datta & Huw D. Dixon, 2002. "Technological Change, Entry and Stock Market Dynamics: An Analysis of Transition in a Monopolistic Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 641, CESifo Group Munich.
    14. Michael T. Kiley, 2000. "Stock prices and fundamentals in a production economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Dividends, Total Cash Flow to Shareholders, and Predictive Return Regressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 91-99, February.
    16. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. " Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-1128, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jakob Brochner Madsen, 2016. "Human Accomplishment and Growth in Britain since 1270: The Role of Great Scientists and Education," Monash Economics Working Papers 01-16, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    2. Jakob B Madsen & Sarah J Carrington, 2011. "Cycles and Corporate Investment: Direct Tests Using Survey Data on Banks’ Lending Practices," Monash Economics Working Papers 18-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    3. Madsen, Jakob B. & Milas, Costas, 2005. "The price-dividend relationship in inflationary and deflationary regimes," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 260-269, December.
    4. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2008. "The Evolution Of Inflation And Unemployment: Explaining The Roaring Nineties," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 334-354, December.
    5. Madsen, Jakob B., 2009. "Taxes and the fundamental value of houses," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 365-376, May.
    6. Madsen, Jakob B., 2010. "The anatomy of growth in the OECD since 1870," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 753-767, September.
    7. Jakob B. Madsen* & Md. Rabiul Islam, 2012. "The Anatomy of the Asian Take-off," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 4(2), pages 1-24, July.
    8. Jakob Madsen, 2008. "Semi-endogenous versus Schumpeterian growth models: testing the knowledge production function using international data," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-26, March.
    9. Jakob B. Madsen & Vinod Mishra & Russell Smyth, 2012. "Is The Output–Capital Ratio Constant In The Very Long Run?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 80(2), pages 210-236, March.
    10. Madsen, Jakob B., 2010. "Growth and capital deepening since 1870: Is it all technological progress?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 641-656, June.
    11. Groth, Christian & Madsen, Jakob B., 2016. "Medium-term fluctuations and the “Great Ratios” of economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 149-176.
    12. Kausik Gangopadhyay & Atsushi Nishimura & Rupayan Pal, 2012. "Co-movement of Skill Premium and Stock Prices," Working Papers id:5174, eSocialSciences.
    13. Jakob B. Madsen & Md. Rabiul Islam & James B. Ang, 2010. "Catching up to the technology frontier: the dichotomy between innovation and imitation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1389-1411, November.
    14. repec:eee:eecrev:v:101:y:2018:i:c:p:605-624 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:kap:jecgro:v:22:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10887-017-9145-z is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Gangopadhyay, Kausik & Nishimura, Atsushi & Pal, Rupayan, 2016. "Can the information technology revolution explain the incidence of co-movement of skill premium and stock prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 107-120.
    17. Davis, E. Philip & Madsen, Jakob B., 2008. "Productivity and equity market fundamentals: 80 years of evidence for 11 OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1261-1283, December.
    18. Zaman, Md Monowaruz, 2007. "The theoretical aspect of Muhammad Yunus’s dream-'putting poverty in museums'," MPRA Paper 1306, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Jan 2007.
    19. Jakob Brochner Madsen, 2016. "Wealth And Inequality In Eight Centuries Of British Capitalism," Monash Economics Working Papers 20-16, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    20. Jakob Brochner Madsen & MD. Rabiul Islam & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2016. "Inequality, Financial Development and Economic Growth in the OECD, 1870-2011," Monash Economics Working Papers 18-16, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    21. Jakob Madsen & James Ang & Rajabrata Banerjee, 2010. "Four centuries of British economic growth: the roles of technology and population," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 263-290, December.
    22. Jakob B. Madsen, 2009. "The Anatomy of Growth in the OECD since 1870: the Transformation from the Post-Malthusian Growth Regime to the Modern Growth Epoch," Monash Economics Working Papers 14-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    23. Jakob B. MADSEN & James B. ANG, 2014. "Finance-Led Growth in the OECD since the 19th century: How Does Financial Development Transmit To Growth?," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1408, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    24. Madsen, Jakob B. & Carrington, Sarah J., 2012. "Credit cycles and corporate investment: Direct tests using survey data on banks’ lending practices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 429-440.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    new economy; productivity; economic growth; equity prices;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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