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Equity Prices, Productivity Growth, and the 'New Economy'

  • Jakob B. Madsen

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • E. Philip Davis

    (Brunel University)

The sharp increase in equity prices over the 1990s was widely attributed to permanently higher productivity growth derived from the New Economy. This paper establishes a rational expectations model of technology innovations and equity prices, which shows that under plausible assumptions, productivity advances can only have temporary effects on the fundamentals of equity prices. Using historical data on productivity of R&D capital, patent capital and fixed capital for 11 OECD countries, empirical evidence give strong support for the model by suggesting that technological innovations indeed have only temporary effects on equity returns.

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Paper provided by Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series EPRU Working Paper Series with number 04-05.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:04-05
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  1. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 1999. "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2437, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2002.
  2. Manishi Prasad & Peter Wahlqvist & Rich Shikiar & Ya-Chen Tina Shih, 2004. "A," PharmacoEconomics, Springer Healthcare | Adis, vol. 22(4), pages 225-244.
  3. Jason G. Cummins, 2004. "A new approach to the valuation of intangible capital," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Ravi Jagannathan & Ellen R. McGrattan & Anna Scherbina., 2000. "The declining U.S. equity premium," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 3-19.
  5. Hulten, Charles R, 1975. "Technical Change and the Reproducibility of Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 956-65, December.
  6. Bipasa Datta & Huw D. Dixon, 2002. "Technological Change, Entry and Stock Market Dynamics: An Analysis of Transition in a Monopolistic Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 641, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," NBER Working Papers 8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
  9. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "Average debt and equity returns: puzzling?," Staff Report 313, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March.
  11. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Carlota Perez, 2002. "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital," Books, Edward Elgar, number 2640, December.
  13. Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Dividends, Total Cash Flow to Shareholders, and Predictive Return Regressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 91-99, February.
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